Christmas Side Play DALLAS +4 over Miami – This line is ridiculous. Dallas, the world champs, a 4-point home dog? Apparently, the linesmakers think that the Heat can do whatever they want, whenever they want. However, the Mavs have VETERANS Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki for leaders. These blue-collar guys will come to play and they will be leading Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom and Vince Carter into battle. They should be able to stay within four points of the Heat – and we expect them to win outright.
The Mavs are not rebuilding, they have reloaded and are ready to go. The Heat are hurting. They will only have Joel Anthony at center and their bench is very thin right now.
We expect Dirk Nowitzki to be pretty much unstoppable here and he should score double-digit points from the free-throw line.
We believe that we are getting the better team here. Not only are we getting the better team, they are at home and we’re getting four points. It’s all hype. It’s all fake. Everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. News reports are hyping this game with statements like, “The Mavericks will raise their championship banner moments before the game.” Well, actually, they will raise the banner well over an hour before Tip-Off.
The Miami Heat couldn’t win in game four here when they were up 2-1 in the finals last year. They also couldn’t win in game five here when the series was tied 2-2. AND when they were down 3-2 AT HOME, they couldn’t win either. NOW they are supposed to be motivated for revenge? What happened in the finals, they weren’t motivated?
The ONLY reason everyone is on the Heat here is the revenge factor for last season’s defeat in the finals. Indeed, NBA teams are 67-52 ATS when seeking revenge for a playoff loss from the previous season. And they are 5-0-1 ATS the last six years when seeking revenge for a loss in the finals. However, this is not a secret. The linesmakers know this -- EVERYONE knows this. This is why the line has been adjusted so drastically. Playing on the Heat here simply because they have revenge for last season's playoff loss can have no line value. The fact that the Heat have playoff revenge does not give you an advantage over the linesmakers -- if you are playing on the Heat.
Does everyone think that the Mavs stole that series from the Heat? Didn’t the Mavs PROVE they were better than the Heat last season? We think they did. Didn’t the Mavs prove that they are not intimidated by the Heat last season? We think they did.
The Dallas Mavericks have not been a four-plus point home dog with Nowitzki in the lineup since the 2008-09 season. This line is simply not warranted. We’re grabbing the points and looking for something like +160 on the moneyline.
MTi’s FORECAST: DALLAS 98 Miami 92
