Comment on the Hawks/Celtics total and 76ers/Bulls Of course I never did my own NBA totals in the playoffs so I've stayed to the side. But I thought I'd look into a few comments from Dr. Bob and his opinions today on totals.
Boston Atlanta he has an opinion on the under from 172. 173 is out there and 173.5 is even available. I'm going to say the Dr. is correct here. He's adjusted for Rajon Rondo and Bradley is a good defensive player from his stats. The teams only played to 86 possessions each and I think about their high point is 90 or 91 through their games in the regular season. I'd get to about 170 so I think under is a decent bet here. They did go to OT to get an over in one game.
One other factor I'll throw out there is that Jason Collins is playing for Atlanta. A few times I commented on him during the season and how he could even make a difference on a total in his back up minutes that he played. I wouldn't call him Antwan Jamison but he is material so at a starter's minutes and without Pachulia he played 31 minutes in the first game.
Collins seems like a stopper even watching him play over the years and his stats bear it out. Now he doesn't play with other starters most of the time has to be the assumption but still his offensive stats are way lower than his teammates. His most common unit I see is almost a game's worth of play and that has Josh Smith, Willliams, Johnson and Teague and they barely score over 80 points per 100 possessions and allow the same. This is incredibly low.
I don't want to over bet but this is one I have to take a crack myself on at the under.
Philadelphia/Chicago
The Doctor only leans under here Rose missing of course sinks the total but you notice that the number hasn't changed so I think they noted they were too low in the first game for a total. My model actually liked the first game over but I didn't bet it (unfortunately).
One thing I don't like about these unders is Richard Hamilton FWIW. He hasn't played that much but he's a guy I consider plays hot. I think that factor alone makes me a little iffy on the whole Bulls/76ers under as value. I felt it was over the for value like I said for the first game.. Without Rose I'm pretty neutral. I still don't think it is value to go under though myself but good luck if anyone does. I don't like the over of course as much at these numbers without Rose. And I do think if he was playing this line would have been 180 and I wouldn't have liked the over so much but I still might have been grasping at some over play because of Hamilton. The 76ers can lock it down though at times so it is big neutral for me this total.
