Conley +9.5 pts+assists vs. chris Paul

Conley +9.5 pts+assists vs. chris Paul Might be posting some props here from time to time. this pick has -200 juice now but a lot of things would have to happen for this pick to lose.

whew..close one

Good job. Here's what goes through my mind these days regarding props (& some small market stuff for that matter): 1.One of the major problems with props is being able to get enough money down at a profitable price. 2.Getting enough down and not crippling the market at the same time. NCAA totals was almost taken off the board until conference play this year, which leads to my 3rd thought. 3.The trick to small markets and props right now seems to be winning and preserving the market at the same. I gotta give props to RAS for winning on NCAA totals and actually keeping the NCAA hoops totals market intact for November and December of next season.

If you win at this stuff you are hurting yourself by posting it.

You got that right. [QUOTE=EdTeach;20311]If you win at this stuff you are hurting yourself by posting it.[/QUOTE] You are more direct than I was in my post. Edteach, you taught me this, and unfortunately, as much as I like helping people (call it a fault), and as much as I like the acknowledgment of posting winners (call it an ego), I simply can't do it anymore in small market stuff. You will kill your own market by posting winners, no two ways about it. I learned the hard way by posting a 30 to 1 shot (which I bet and had the wagers accepted at 35 to 1 & 30 to 1 before I posted it) which won, and after I posted it, a bunch of people also hammered it (which was OK, as I was the one who posted it, and it was obviously a good bet). I know it was not a "bad line", as there were similar prices (some with longer odds than this one) offered on comparable looking players on this bet. The only problem was the sportsbook canceled my bets before the game started after everyone else hit it. After all this one-way action, they knew they had the worst of it on this prop. They hit me with the "bad line posted" excuse and canceled my bets, and I had a war on my hands because I couldn't keep a good prop bet to myself. Now it was take the original bet and get barred, or let them me rob me of several thousand (taking the "adjusted" line of 12 to 1), and I can still play there (for not too much longer most likely, or for even less than the tiny limits they offered if you ask me, because that's the way these things usually go). So I'd have to say that Edteach was correct when things finally played themselves out. It's very hard to preserve the market on these kind of bets when you win and your plays go public. In the short and the long run.

I really enjoy the concept of betting the wrong way early and coming over the top late. It seems unstoppable because of how books do what they do. How do you corral a bunch of stiffs (myself included) so everyone goes along with it?

i agree with you ed teach and climate...i was just frustrated about being limited and thought it would be nice to post a few to stick it to the man..i will likely refrain in doing so in the future tough to post winners anyways when after you get down a nickel the lines move 30-60 cents (a nickel is a lot for me though!)

[QUOTE=dcheng112;20323]i agree with you ed teach and climate...i was just frustrated about being limited and thought it would be nice to post a few to stick it to the man..i will likely refrain in doing so in the future tough to post winners anyways when after you get down a nickel the lines move 30-60 cents (a nickel is a lot for me though!)[/QUOTE] Be glad they still let you bet that much.

I understand the concept of keeping information private but once you are down I dont see the issue with releasing plays. After all, if we all kept our plays private this forum would be completly dead. Climate's story definatly sucks, and I would blow a fuse if I was in his shoes but that outcome was more the book being scum than anything else IMO.

[QUOTE=mags;20334]I understand the concept of keeping information private but once you are down I dont see the issue with releasing plays. After all, if we all kept our plays private this forum would be completly dead. Climate's story definatly sucks, and I would blow a fuse if I was in his shoes but that outcome was more the book being scum than anything else IMO.[/QUOTE] Bookmakers aren't stupid, what you will see especially online is what bodog does. They offer crappy odds and they wait to put them out as to see how the line moves so they don't mistakenly lead out with a bad line. The only reason I still use them is access and bets offered. I like to bet mma and boxing and they generally offer more propositions. The odds aren't great but at least I get more options. When you are betting tighter props it would be more of an issue. Boxing fights especially over the last few years aren't all that close most of the time anyway and if they are, there is no edge on the fights. Why bet a -170 like on kessler and only be about 60 percent sure he'll win, when I can get -500 and I'm 95 percent sure someone else will win. Maybe someone can show me the math of why I'm wrong.