first round is a mortal lock. they will be at least -300 to -400 in the second and third round game and probably at least -250 if they play nova or baylor in the fourth round, or higher against anyone else.
I think Baylor could beat Duke by 20 if they are "on" that day.
Baylor much more size and speed in the backcourt.
Dukes inside game could give Baylor some major issues though.