Every night 10-1, 20-1,50-1 shots are stealing my money this week

Every night 10-1, 20-1,50-1 shots are stealing my money this week OKC Moneyline up 15 with 5:00 left. None. Zero. Bulls in Game 4 lose in OT BUlls in Game 5, ML up 12 with 3:00 left. None Zero. I took it very easy betting the last few games......a good thing! I was KICKING myself for not loading up on the Bulls tonight......until........the hangover II

as far back as 5:00 left you could see Bulls had Rose pounding ball at top of key killing clock instead running their regular offense. In the hoop equivalent of running the prevent. They started playing the clock and not to lose. Lebron also swallowed D Rose whole on Defense down the stretch and Bulls had no #2 option. Can Dirk score in 4th Q when they put LBJ on him or will it be the Grassy Knoll??

I guess there is something to be said for handicapping veteran leadership after all. Only the years change.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;43343]OKC Moneyline up 15 with 5:00 left. None. Zero. Bulls in Game 4 lose in OT BUlls in Game 5, ML up 12 with 3:00 left. None Zero. I took it very easy betting the last few games......a good thing! I was KICKING myself for not loading up on the Bulls tonight......until........the hangover II[/QUOTE] I am curious if you ever insure with live bets. For example, I noticed Miami ML of +1800 with about 3 minutes to go. I know down 12 with 3 minutes to go is more than a long shot, but if you have significant money on the other side, do you ever consider this? Just curious.

If it's a 20-1 shot, it's a bad hedge. But how do you decide what the odds are? Clearly his "10-1, 20-1, 50-1" is an expression. (Well, the data is probably out there, and come to think of it, he probably knows it off the top of his head. If someone sold data that said the likelihood a team wins when down X with Y minutes to go, you could just memorize the table and do in-game for every game.)