Expectation Value

Expectation Value I need a bit of help. This is probably a basic question so a simple explanation would be very helpful. I want to figure if a bet is a good bet or a bad bet. Using St Pierre vs Hardy (UFC) I bet St. Pierre -625. So I bet 6.25 units to win one. I figure that St. Pierre will win this fight 95 percent of the time. Is this a good bet or a bad bet and why? At what point should I consider betting on Hardy? What would the odds need to be for a bet on Hardy have positive expectation? Thanks in advance.

Good Bet [QUOTE=truushot;19901]I need a bit of help. This is probably a basic question so a simple explanation would be very helpful. I want to figure if a bet is a good bet or a bad bet. Using St Pierre vs Hardy (UFC) I bet St. Pierre -625. So I bet 6.25 units to win one. I figure that St. Pierre will win this fight 95 percent of the time. Is this a good bet or a bad bet and why? At what point should I consider betting on Hardy? What would the odds need to be for a bet on Hardy have positive expectation? Thanks in advance.[/QUOTE] If you're right about St Pierre winning 95% of the time I'd say it's a good bet. If that happened, you'd win 95 units and lose 31.25 units (5 x 6.25) for every 100 bets you make.

[QUOTE=MobileBandit;19902]If you're right about St Pierre winning 95% of the time I'd say it's a good bet. If that happened, you'd win 95 units and lose 31.25 units (5 x 6.25) for every 100 bets you make.[/QUOTE] Okay, so I have to believe that St. Pierre is at least 87% to win in order to make this a positive EV situation. (1 X 87) > (13 X 6.25)

I like St. Pierre to win this fight. He is better than Hardy in every facet of the game. However, I would NEVER lay -625 in an MMA fight. MMA is too unpredictable. St. Pierre lost as a bigger fav to Matt Serra. It may have been a fluke since he dominated Serra in the rematch, but I don't lay this kind of wood. Right side, bad bet.

[QUOTE=Shooter;19904]I like St. Pierre to win this fight. He is better than Hardy in every facet of the game. However, I would NEVER lay -625 in an MMA fight. MMA is too unpredictable. St. Pierre lost as a bigger fav to Matt Serra. It may have been a fluke since he dominated Serra in the rematch, but I don't lay this kind of wood. Right side, bad bet.[/QUOTE] It would seem that you believe no fighter in MMA is worth that price. I'd point out that while fighting in the UFC, Pierre has a winning percentage of 93.75%. 90.47% over all in all MMA fights.

I believe that undervalued favorites are some of the best bets you can make. I'll refer to my Winter Olympics Team Ski Jumping bet that I posted here at LVASports. Where the Austrian team was basically a lock to win if they showed up. I thought the sportsbooks would know this and protect an avalanche of chalk money. I thought the Austrian team should have been 12 or at least a 10-1 favorite. I'm not laying that price. I decided that an automatic bet would be at -550 or less. They opened -300 and I missed it, still laid -345 and -360. Many times I will make a number/line or parameter that you would want to lay. Sure, we all want GSP here and I would lay -400 here tops, that would be a good bet IMO. TRU our good buddy, I hope this helps.

If St. Pierre was -400 or less, I'd bet the house, but -625 is high for me. I don't like laying huge #'s that often, b/c most MMA fighters are sloppy "traditional" boxers and anyone can anyone. That being said, I think you'll win your +100 here on GSP.

[QUOTE=truushot;19901]I need a bit of help. This is probably a basic question so a simple explanation would be very helpful. I want to figure if a bet is a good bet or a bad bet. Using St Pierre vs Hardy (UFC) I bet St. Pierre -625. So I bet 6.25 units to win one. I figure that St. Pierre will win this fight 95 percent of the time. Is this a good bet or a bad bet and why? At what point should I consider betting on Hardy? What would the odds need to be for a bet on Hardy have positive expectation?[/QUOTE] 95% is the equivalent of -2000 so it's a good bet. If you're betting quarter Kelly you should risk 21.64% of bank at -625 to win 3.46%, although in practice I would tend to be more conservative than that. You would need +2001 or higher for a Hardy bet to be +EV. 1/4th Kelly would suggest a .25u bet at +2430.

Thank you for all the input, it is invaluable. So this basically comes down to this. Some don't like laying long odds though they don't strictly follow if the bet is +EV or not. Some, many of them better at this then I, don't think that St. Pierre is that big of favorite and would only place this bet with shorter odds and then there is me who still believes that this is a good bet. I simply look at it this way. If St. Pierre fought Hardy 100 times independently, He would be lucky to win 10 times. I would put the over under on 5. So my bet, whether it wins or loses, is +EV. It isn't as I'm betting my entire bankroll on the fight. I'm not even betting as many units as I lost since the Tournament started..... :mad: