Friday Horizon League Opinion [B]Friday, January 29
Valparaiso @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Recommendation: Take Valparaiso +7.5[/B]
There was nothing particularly unusual about Valparaiso’s one point home win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee when these two teams met on New Year’s Eve. The Crusaders didn’t shoot particularly well, under 40 percent for the game. Milwaukee made a few more three pointers. Neither team got to the free throw line very much, so there was no disparity there. Milwaukee, by far the bigger of the two squads, had a few more rebounds, but the smaller, quicker Crusaders created a few more turnovers.
The point of this game recap is to point out that there really isn’t any significant difference between these two teams from a power rating perspective. At +7.5 (the current pointspread), I’d be interested in either team, on either floor.
The recent series history clearly indicates that this pointspread is out of whack. In the last seven meetings dating back to the ’03-’04 campaign, we’ve seen four games come down to the final possession, two Valpo wins by nine points or more and only one Milwaukee win by more than four points.
Right now, Valparaiso is playing at a level far better than their season long power rating number would indicate. The Crusaders have won four straight, including back-2-back road wins in Chicago last week. They also have a two point, spread covering loss at Wright State on their recent resume.
Homer Drew’s squad has been competitive in every single Horizon League game since losing badly at Butler back on December 5th. Forward Cory Johnson: “Our team's clicking really well right now, and our goal is to keep climbing the ranks, keep the momentum going and get ourselves in position for tournament time.”
While Valpo is playing better basketball in recent weeks, Milwaukee isn’t. They just lost a game at Cleveland State in which they shot lights out – 53 percent from the floor, 11-20 from three point land, and 13-14 from the charity stripe. The culprit in that defeat? Those same turnover woes that plagued them in the first meeting. Expect the Panthers ball handling problems to be a difference maker ATS once again tonight.
[B]Take Valparaiso (#833).[/B]
