Friday Night NBA Opinion We cashed with Atlanta as road favorites over the Clippers in my 'opinion play' here in the forum on Wednesday. Let's take another shot with a road favorite tonight....
[B]Friday, February 19
Toronto @ New Jersey
Recommendation: Take the Raptors -2[/B]
We’re getting the usual betting market over-reaction to a key player’s absence tonight as Toronto travels to New Jersey to take on the Nets. Yes, Chris Bosh is not expected to suit up for the Raptors, missing his first game of the season. But teams around the league play well in their first game without their star. We saw Denver win and cover without Carmelo Anthony, New Orleans win and cover without Chris Paul, LA win and cover without Kobe Bryant, Boston win and cover without Paul Pierce – I think you get my point. Anytime a star goes down, his teammates tend to use that opportunity to step up – at least for one game. Savvy bettors make money off this angle every single year; 2010 being no exception to the rule.
The Raptors got beaten up on their home floor by Memphis in their first game out of the All Star break. Bosh scored 32; the other Raptors starters combined for only 27 points. Head coach Jay Triano: “We got off to a slow start and we were very sluggish. We had a hard time getting it going at all.” Expect a much better effort from the Raptors here, now that they’ve had a game to brush off their post All-Star break rust. And this is one spot where we can expect the Raptors starters to step up after their sluggish showing last time out.
New Jersey has been covering pointspreads of late; 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten, despite a 1-9 SU record during that span. But the Nets still aren’t winning tight games -- crucial in this pointspread range -- unable to hit big shots or get stops during crunchtime. The Nets are a woeful 1-11 SU in games decided by five points or less. New Jersey has no discernable homecourt edge, just 3-22 SU on their floor this year. And they’ve proven that they can’t trade points with high octane offensive teams like the Raptors (Toronto has scored 100+ in 18 straight games), losing both previous meetings to Toronto by a combined total of 32 points.
[B]Take Toronto. [/B]
