Heat/Mavs Betting Strategy I have no idea what scenario that will play out but here are the ones I am watching for:
(1) The Heat will be embraced as a "public" team at some point. Maybe they're too reviled but this is just a scenario. Most of the betting will be on the Heat. This will create bargains on the Mavericks especially in Nevada near post time for bets.
This is the standard scenario I see mostly through NFL. I end up on the non-public teams with a good number. A very nice strategy to win money.
The board has a tremendous value bet on Dallas at +260 and perhaps +160 is a good bet too right now. I bet Dallas through the games as a dog or as a small favourite getting hopefully some bargains. Maybe Fez spots a few situations for the board on them and I jump in on them because there is value without any help from "off" numbers.
Dallas pulls the "upset" or just covers enough games that they're the advantage betting side. We all win money because we're all smarter than everyone else as we knew Dallas did indeed have great value and we bet on them.
(2) The betting public embraces Dallas as an underdog. The series is much closer than the series odds currently portray and the public knows this and is not fooled. They hate Miami anyway. The betting is on Dallas and it will leave me with value bets in the state of Nevada on Miami vs. the offshore world.
This is not as typical a situation out here but it still comes up frequently.
I'll often see this betting pattern in major boxing matches out here where there is no interest in betting the favourite and the public clearly wants the dog. As a pro bettor I am stuck on a favourite at better prices than the rest of the world can obtain as that is where there are bargains.
It is not as comfortable a situation for me since I'm on the favourite and I have a tonne of people writing that the value is on the other side.
These are tough losses to take if you lose because it seems like everyone is winning----sharps and common bettors while you just tear up a value ticket. But just as profitable to be betting against this type of move and perhaps Fez will spot some situations where the line favours Miami as well even without the help of an "off" number.
I'm beginning to think I'll need to bet Miami some in this series to make money. #1 scenario would be nice but I'm not sure if it will be the one that plays out.
