how would you set an nba series line?

how would you set an nba series line? i have a theory, but it seems way to high for the dog. example of knicks/heat. miami approx 6.5 on nuetral floor. knicks would be about +3 or 3.5 at home. they need to win all three at home and 1 in miami. so figure about +150 x3 would be about 15-1 to win the three home games. then figure miami is about -9.5 or 10 at home, so the knicks would need to win 1 of 4 at about +500 (about +125 that they win at least 1). should they be over 30-1 to win a series against the heat, or am i figuring this out wrong?

That would be the odds for them to sweep those four games. It gets harder to figure out because they can lose up to three games and still win the bet.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;41369]That would be the odds for them to sweep those four games. It gets harder to figure out because they can lose up to three games and still win the bet.[/QUOTE] i know there are other possiblilities, like the knicks winning more than 1 on the road. is there any formula that can be used to try to figure out what the price should be?

The MAth 1. You need the novig moneyline chances home and road By example, assume Lakers are .8 home, .6 road vs. NO in a 3 game series. Assume H A H LAL can win WW, WLW, Or LWW Chance to win .8x.6 plus.8x.4x.8 plus .2x.6x.8 Expand the method out to a 7 game series.......... Of course LOTS of ways to win WWWW, WLWWW, etc............