3/31 3 PST
Open KY -8, 138.5
Current KY -8.5, 136.5
I would agree with your sentiments here Larry. Although I also thought KY has been over priced all tournament and all they have done is gone 3-1 ATS. Now another 8.5, 9 point spread as a favorite in the Final Four against Louisville. I would think the "public" will be all over KY, basically they have been cashing in on KY since after the first round and now they get another "familiar" number. For me the play has to be on Louisville or no play at all. Here is what I see:
Kentucky has been able to get away with their lack of depth all year, largely due to having one of the most talented players on the bench in Darius Miller. I really thought this was something to watch for in the tournament and that was partly why I though a team like Indiana could have a chance if they got KY into foul trouble. And what happens in that game, couldn't have asked for a better start if you had Indiana +10 getting 2 fouls on Anthony Davis within like the first 5 or 6 minutes. So KY brings Darius Miller off the bench, who really is a starter and they go "small". Only thing is KY front line going small is still 6-9, 6-7, 6-8 with quickness and Indiana had trouble stopping penetration and guarding MKG and Miller all game. In addition to this Kentucky has been shooting lights out since the tourney started; 56%, 55%, 48%, and 53% have been the FG% for this team combine that with being able to hit timely 3 pointers consistently and it has been tough for teams to stay with the Wildcats. Conversely I know the stats for the tourney do not mean much as it is such a small sample size but you have a Louisville team that really has not been shooting nearly as well at 42% and has had to rely on the three a bit more than I would like. Another reason that backers of KY have loved them in the tourney so far is their ability to hit FT's especially late in games not allowing for any unfortunate backdoor covers. It seems there are a bunch of stats one could pull out to support this KY team covering here.
One thing I think some are forgetting is that this Louisville team has been a great team ATS this year and has been on a winning streak lately. I still consider Louisville somewhat of a public team and they are probably a team that attracts action and still this team is 22-13 ATS this year. I am not sure how much of that really can be put back into this line against such a public high rank team in Kentucky but surely all of the value has to be on getting the points. Like I said before Louisville seems to be a team that really has the ability to be in just about every game no matter who the opponent. I know they had one really bad loss to Providence but aside from that the average margin in defeats has been about -5.5. There is also an argument to be made that this Louisville team has taken huge strides in improving as the season progressed. The young players Dieng, Behanan, and R.Smith seem to be playing at a very high level in the tourney; with the most important player for Louisville being Dieng against this Kentucky team. He has been on the floor for a lot of minutes in the tourney and will have to be to match up with Davis.
I am not sure how much we can take from the game these teams played in the beginning of the year. It was very much of an ugly game with turnovers on both sides and really both teams not shooting well. I remember watching the game and feeling like Kentucky was always up by more points than they were. Louisville kept getting back in the game after nearly getting blown out in the first and was largely in the game for much of the second half. KY did start to pull away a bit later in the second half, the ending margin was only 7 but really it should have been more. Anybody who had KY minus the points that game had to deal with a brutal backdoor cover; KY up by 13 points with 19 seconds remaining only to have the game close with Louisville going on an 8-2 run on just a ridiculous sequence of events to end it. It is easy to make an argument that neither team performed up to standards and both are better than what they showed on that day. Louisville did have to relay on some players from the bench a bit more than I am sure Pitino would have like as Behanan had foul trouble but they have also lost Buckells since that game. It would also seem that R. Smith has improved his shot selection dramatically since that point in the season which has helped this team. Understanding that Kentucky really relys on 6 players, I would be pressed to say that Louisville is that much of a deeper team at this point in the year really just relying on R.Smith, Swoopshire, and Blackshear off the bench but really get the bench scoring from R.Smith.
Initially I was looking at the total in this game as possibly following the tourney trend with KY and taking the OVER. Betting over's on this Kentucky team has not been the way to make money this year, but that has changed in the tourney with all four of the games going OVER. Seeing as it has dropped a bit I am a bit wear of taking any Over this time of year, but I am really not sure if Kentucky can be slowed down that significantly. No doubt Louisville would prefer to keep this game in the 60's or even 50's but I also think that Louisville can be sped up by opponents at times. Florida largely controlled the pace of their game against Louisville, but they also shot lights out in the first half and had Louisville playing from behind. Kentucky has significantly improved on their season average 78 points per game in the tourney. Largely they had opponents that offensively needed to go up and down the floor to score on Kentucky or had leads where opponents were fouling. I do seem to remember in the first game these teams played that Louisville was also forced to play faster when they found the game getting away from them early in the first half, and that was really when they started to have success offensively and get some turnovers. Louisville was able to turn KY over 20 times which I believe was one of KY highest game totals all year, they were probably more successful pressing KY than any other team I can remember.
So I am leaning Louisville +8.5 (largely 8.5 online now) and over at 136.5. I am wondering if like the Indiana game we are going to see the line go up in to maybe even a Louisville +9.5, 10 by game time? If anyone has an opinion on that I am interested. If the total keeps going down, 135 or so I would probably play it.
