Lots of NBA games going OVER as of late it seems...

[QUOTE=Kruger;20491]Basic strategy isn't always correct. Historically, two teams with a below 40% winning percentage playing each other in the month of April are 23-26 OU, 46.9%, since the start of the 2004 season. For those of you who want to go back further, since the beginning of the 1999 season, in the above-mentioned scenario, the OU is 46-45. 50.5%.[/QUOTE] Nice info. I wonder if that OVER % goes up say if you drop the variable down to 30% winning percentage teams. It seems Fezz was right on when he said not to long ago that the NETs should start to go OVER quite often after avoiding the worst record of all time possibility.

[QUOTE=burger;20492]Nice info. I wonder if that OVER % goes up say if you drop the variable down to 30% winning percentage teams. It seems Fezz was right on when he said not to long ago that the NETs should start to go OVER quite often after avoiding the worst record of all time possibility.[/QUOTE] Good question. Since the start of the 2004 season, two 30% or worse winning percentage teams in April squaring off are 7-9 OU. Go back to the start of the 1999 season, and it is 11-12 OU. However, if you remove the "end of the season" tag on the teams, since 2004 when two 30% or worse teams have met, the Over does happen at a 55% rate. Going back to 1999, though, the Over rate falls to 52%.

Can you eliminate the first month of the season and see what happens? Seems that a lot of 1-3 and 3-7 teams aren't necessarily representative of most .300-caliber ballclubs.

[QUOTE=Kruger;20511]Good question. Since the start of the 2004 season, two 30% or worse winning percentage teams in April squaring off are 7-9 OU. Go back to the start of the 1999 season, and it is 11-12 OU. However, if you remove the "end of the season" tag on the teams, since 2004 when two 30% or worse teams have met, the Over does happen at a 55% rate. Going back to 1999, though, the Over rate falls to 52%.[/QUOTE] Where do you find this info if I may ask? Thanks

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;20512]Can you eliminate the first month of the season and see what happens? Seems that a lot of 1-3 and 3-7 teams aren't necessarily representative of most .300-caliber ballclubs.[/QUOTE] Very good point, I totally agree. You do get a small bump eliminating October-November games. 2004 on: 48-38 OU 55.8% 1999 on: 81-67 OU 54.7% Jim

[QUOTE=burger;20513]Where do you find this info if I may ask? Thanks[/QUOTE] I have it all memorized. But just back to 1990. Sorry, just trying to make a joke. :) I use sportsdatabase.com. That's not all I use for capping the NBA, but it does help uncover some tendencies. Jim