Mavs - Lakers write-up

Mavs - Lakers write-up 0-1 already today -- trying to get to 50%. As always, comments welcome. The Lakers had won five straight, but their winning streak was clipped by the Clippers on Saturday 102-94. Kobe Bryant took the Lion’s Share of the shots and scored 42 points in a losing effort. The simple fact is that the Lakers have a hard time in this situation. LA is 0-9 ATS during the regular season when they are off a loss in which Kobe Bryant scored 30+ points and played at least 32 minutes. Check it out with this SDQL text: team=Lakers and p:L and Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and Kobe Bryant:p:minutes>32 and playoffs=0 and 20100301=4 and season>=2009 Note that the Lakers were the favorite in each game, but their lone straight up win came vs the Bobcats, when they won 109-107 laying nine. The Mavs have gotten in the groove since their lackadaisical start. Dallas has won five straight and they covered every time. They are a streaky team and this is a great spot to jump on them while they are HOT. Dallas is 9-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) on the road when they are off two-plus home wins. In their last game in this situation they won the NBA Championship, by beating the Heat in Miami after winning two straight at home. Also, the Mavericks are 8-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) after a win in which Jason Terry played fewer than 30 minutes, 5-0 ATS (+9.8 ppg) on the road after a win in which Jason Kidd shot better than 50% from the arc and 4-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) on the road after a win at home in which Dirk Nowitzki played fewer than 30 minutes. In addition, Dallas is 10-0 ATS (+8.7 ppg) when they held their opponent to 85 points or fewer in their last game, winning every game straight up. Our opinion is to grab the points. MTi’s FORECAST: Dallas 93 LA LAKERS 91

Prof, can you run 'LAL LOSE SU, AND give up 100+ points, bet next game 'under'. Actually, how about ANY premier team,(.667+ win percentage) off a 10+ point loss, giving up 100 or more points, play their next game 'under'.

Fezzik, Thanks for the opportunity to show off the SDQL. The SDQL text for the Lakers off a double-digit loss in which they allowed 100+points is: p:margin=100 and team=Lakers The OU record is: O/U: 80-68-2 (1.6) This, however, is since the start of the database in 1995. We can run any time span we like. For example: p:margin=100 and team=Lakers and season>2004 Gives the Lakers' result in this situation since 2005. They are 27-30-1 OU To get the results for ANY premier team in this situation, the SDQL text is: p:margin=100 and WP>66.6 These teams are a combined: O/U: 257-287-8 (-0.3 ppg) in this spot. I took the liberty of adding the fact that the team has less than three days rest (seems reasonable) and is at home, thusly: p:margin=100 and WP>66.6 and rest=100 and WP>66.6 and 0=100 and WP>66.6 and 0

I know you like suggestions, so here is one: When you're showing an ATS record such as that one, showing the number of units won if the under were bet would be more usable because that is what the bettor would be doing :) Even more useful is the percentage, which in the 58.3% example you did provide. That's a useful trend!

Another tweak... This system does much better early in the season. Running this: WP>66.6 and p:margin=100 and H and rest=10 which give the results for October, November and December, gives a 25-49 OU record. and this: WP>66.6 and p:margin=100 and H and rest