MLK Totals Primer (but amateur hour)

MLK Totals Primer (but amateur hour) The big day is arriving and someone has to know but has the under strategy worked the past few MLK slates? I think I went 4-3 last year but I think I lost the year before. This year I wanted to get ready and just use my NBA total model which has no track record, isn't used every day and was made up on the fly this morning and see what I would come up with. Greek already has some openers too. Here are my totals with no bias for MLK. 701 190 703 176 705 189.5 707 186 709 194 711 184 713 202.5 (assumed Paul plays) 715 176.5 717 191 719 185.5 721 180 The games down to 716 are day games. Looking at Greek openers 701 is off because of Carmelo's uncertainty but I expect he'll play according to the last notice I got. 703 is 177.5 so I like it a little under that and add in bias for MLK it would be a candidate. 705 I have 189.5 and Cris now is see is 187 and Greek 188. This one I don't like so much. Bogut will play and he's missed a few games so perhaps Milwaukee's D would be better if had a way and I don't in my simple model of playing around to incorporate that. So I'll say I'm too high a bit but I'm not lower than Cris. 707 I came up at only 186 which does seem low. The openers are at 189.5 so I definitely like this one. My number probably penalizes Wash too much for their poor offense. They have a shot at home against a Houston D which is below average certainly. WAsh pace is pretty low, few assists and not sure of the impact of Blatche now that he's out. But this one is a candidate for me. 709 I came up with a similar number as the oddmakers on their open. So for a blind play under I might be okay especially if any endorsement here. 711 I don't like. Portland I have a few pts higher than the oddmakers. It is the slow pokes of NO vs. Portland who push it a little more than previous years. No doubt my total is probably too high but it is enough for me to say it is not a great candidate for me. 715 is the Raptors and I'm lower here by a point and actually this already moved under. It is a good move---according to me. As I wrote in another thread I think without Bargnani the Raptors will have trouble scoring. Casey has them at a pedestrian rate. Atlanta not as good without Horford though so it is hard for me to know what their D will be like without him. The Raptors didn't disappoint me scoring 64 vs. the Bulls and cashed an under and on MLK Day....my gosh.....well they might get 70 but this is a candidate for me. The other games are evening games so I will leave out of the analysis.

Time to take an early morning look to see what is up. 701 is now 3 pts higher than my total. I guess I should love this one. 703 is the same so it is still a candidate. 705 is 3 pts lower[I][/I] than my total so not a great candidate. 707 is now 5.5 pts higher than where I was. I definitely respect the market's number more than mine. But it has steamed up so comeon it is MLK Day. Geez. What a great under this must be? LOL. 709 No change. Numbers match. But still a candidate. 711 I am 2 pts higher than the market. Still not a great candidate for me. 713--Chris Paul is doubtful so I would dropped my total by a few points for him being out. Let's say I come up with 198 I'd still be higher than the market. The market number is a better number but regardless I won't call it a strong candidate for me since I put an hour into this. 715--Matches my number. Still at least a candidate. Anyone else have some input on which games to go under? Quite honestly most of the "big moves" have been to the over.

Now I will also comment since I did this work on the Sacramento/Minnesota total. The market steamed up from the opener to 197.5 and my number is only 191. The market opened at 192 so clearly a big group likes this game over and that is pretty heavy move. I think if one looks at the season stats the total would be closer to 197 although I don't think a sharp group would be betting it that high so I do think this might be a good under play from that number. The season stats might get one a total of 194-195.5 I'm guessing. I don't know the reason for the steam up. However, it is the only game I did make a special adjustment down in the total of a few points so I would have been at 194 to 195.5 The reason for the special adjustment down is I expect Ricky Rubio to start the game for Minnesota. His defensive numbers are tremendous and Minnesota's D and average pts. allowed per possession are much lower when he's on the floor vs. when he isn't on the floor. I felt then I couldn't use the aggregate stats. My number was higher at 194 or so but I knocked it down. But some big money totals players do not agree with an adjustment down and even like this game a few points higher. I don't have a play on the under in fact I haven't made any plays yet but I'll watch this total since if it steams back down I will think it is a good bet.

I'll also comment on the Laker total where I'm 180 and the market is now 183. I used a little better D for Dallas since their first few games were so poor. I have read an analysis of the game from Dr. Bob sports and he's more concrete that the Dallas D is much better in points allowed per possession with Jason Kidd not playing. I'm not sure what his status is for tonight's game. I don't see his name on the VI injury list. I would then have to agree that the total should be higher than my 180 if he's playing at least by a few points.

Results Chicago/Memphis goes over. Derrick Rose didn't play. The line moved to 174 I saw. Personally, I had a very small bet on the under. So MLK under starts off 0-1. Knicks/Magic....interesting this one was close and in fact 195 did appear and it got bet under from there. You could have pushed this one I think but a blind play would have lost at 193 and such. Personally, I had no bet on this one even though I thought this one might be okay. I'm going to say MLK starts 0-2 to the under but perhaps someone got a push and maybe even a side on it which would be nice. 76ers/Bucks....Good move to the under here for followers. Bogut playing and 76ers much better at home defensively probably reasons for move down and MLK. I don't have a bet on it and this is a game my own total was higher but I think the 76ers home stats are better was one of my flaws. 1-2 now for MLK. Rockets/Wizards---Game just flew over. Wizards horrible but the Rockets a team you can score on. A good move to the over by the sharp bettors. I played a very small bet on them under so now I'm 0-2. And MLK overall is 1-3 on the card. Bobcats/Cavs....well the models were pretty close to perfect at 194 and the game scored 196. There was a move under to this game before it. Personally, I have no bet and I think all MLK bettors under lose here in a close one. 1-4. Time to fight back. Blazers/Hornets....You get back in the winner's circle. There was a small move to the under. Another game I was a point or two higher than the market but this started really slowly and was an easy under and I ain't got no bet on it. A winner for MLK under...2-4. Nets/Clippers....Pretty big under with Paul and Williams out. A good move again for the market and it stays under. Not by a lot but you get the win....now 3-4 MLK under. Raptors/Hawks....Right on the number at many books. But let's give it a win for MLK under as the opener was 178 or so and a blind bet there under wins. Hopefully if you did bet it under you got 177.5 which was out there at a few spots.....MLK 4-4 under. And I went 0-2.

This was well done.