My thoughts on 3-0 series I think the 3-0 series we see now aren't my father's 3-0 series of years back. Lakers melted down defensively and hard to not like Dallas tomorrow that is for sure. They've established they are a good team and now up 3-0 I agree that the line or moneyline seems short on Dallas.
But what I'm not as convinced of is that the situation of 3-0 in this series and in many I've seen recently fit the pattern of 3-0 series in the past. The customary 3-0 series to me is a strong opponent vs. an inferior opponent and the series probably ends in 4 games given a 3-0. It is hardly noteworthy from a statistics perspective IMO that nobody comes back from these.
In the salary cap era of pro sports and where fewer teams as a percentage of the league number of teams get into the playoffs there is more parity betweeen opponents and, in fact, the likelihood that a series could even be 3-0 for Dallas this year or 3-0 for the Bruins last year vs. the Flyers or 3-0 for the Yankees over the Red Sox a few years ago is pretty unlikely in and of itself.
There have to be far fewer situations where the team with home court advantage to start a series is down 3-0? How often has this even occurred out of all 3-0 situations? We have to be choosing from a smaller pool.
I'm old enough to remember the Islanders come back against the Penguins to win 4-3 which was only the 2nd time the comeback had been done. What was noteworthy about that series was that Pittsburgh even had the 3-0 lead to begin with. Neither was a top team at that time and they were closely matched. I think the Flyers/ Bruins last year were more contending teams but also closely matched. I felt the Bruins even taking a 3-0 lead in that series was surprising.
It has been done 4 times the comeback and once last year and twice in the past 8 years or so. I will say at least of the 2 comebacks recently this fits the pattern a little. The teams are evenly matched in many regards. It may be 3-0 but Dallas has had 2 close wins and the Game 4 line is obviously set as if the Lakers have the better team.
If that is not the case, the play on Dallas to me is like a 4 weight the best bet I've seen. Great situation on Dallas and the team is right there with the Lakers, shouldn't the line be -4 or -4.5?
But not just Pinnacle but every other book or bettor knows this 3-0 series isn't their father's 3-0 series.