NBA Friday

NBA Friday [B]815 Utah Jazz PK -108[/B] The more I look at this game the more I want to bet against the Hornets, who have won just 3 games in their L10 and those wins were against Sacramento, Detroit, and lowly Charlotte, and all at home. They have not beaten a team of the class and caliber of Utah since mid November. The Hornets are 9-0 and 13-1 Under lately and it is obvious they are struggling scoring points not breaking the century mark in 14 straight games. Utah is starting a 4 game road trip tonight, they are 6-1 SUP and ATS on the road and have 2 extra days of rest.

Alf: Thank you for the play and the analysis. You are dead on correct about the state of both teams right now. What concerns me though is that UT opened as only a 1 point favorite. Accordingly, UT PK is just screaming "trap play" to me. Do you (or anyone else) have any thoughts or guesses as to why UT opened as such a short favorite? For example, is NO's 10-3 home record keeping the line short? Thanks again for the plays and analysis. Your NBA work this season has been excellent.

Both teams are dead teams for action with the sportsbooks this year. Knicks and Miami Heat, Lakers-76ers etc are getting over 50% of the action according to one offshore book. Sharps love to bet the bounce or due factor in these spots, that is keeping the line where it is. I talked to a dozen plus of my 97 contacts today and none of them would play the Hornets even if they were +2. Also, do not believe in the trap play theory. The number is there for a reason and it's not necessarily to get money on both sides, it's not to get KILLED on one side, the sportsbooks are not nearly sharp enough to know which side to put a trap line on IMO.

Thanks Alf, I am on it!

I'm not worthy! thank you.

Thanks for the response, Alf. If I understand you correctly, the books are going to take a boat load of action on some of the other games tonight (MIA@NYK, LAL@PHI, PHX@DAL) where they expect to make $$$, so they probably don't care about taking a relatively small loss on UT -1, and are instead just making sure they don't get killed: (1) in the event of NO +(>1), by "square sharps" playing some angle like "take home team over .500 when they are plus points"; or, (2) in the event of UT +(anything), by straight up squares taking the obvious better team getting points.

Not that my opinion matters, but I agree on Utah here. Also going back to the NYK conversation earlier in the week, I can't see the Knicks keeping this one close. I won't be wagering on it, because I haven't learned to bet against my team, but I see a bit of let down. Interested in your take Alf and best of luck tonight.

Was hoping to lay -3 or less. Spot favors Heat and they matchup better than the Celtics IMO.

Completely agree about them matching up better. Only advantage for the Knicks is Felton and I wouldn't be surprised to see Wade guard him, eliminating the advantage.

I'm not a huge fan of teasers in general, but Alf (and others), how do you feel about teasing the Heat to PK and the Jazz to +4 (best I can find now is Jazz -1). Seems decent to me. Thoughts from others? John