NBA Monday

NBA Monday [B]510 Miami Heat -6.5[/B] The Heat have won 12 in a row and are an astounding 9-2-1 ATS in that streak. Dallas is no slouch but haven't got the money lately 3-4 ATS L7. These two teams played in late November in Dallas 106-95, and the Mavs were hot and the Heat were not, losing 3 of 4 going into Dallas and A BAD SPOT playing B2B games. This game and outcome should be vastly different as Dallas (who has played their L6 in the friendly confines of the AA Center and who hasn't played a road game in 16 days) starts a 3 game road trip leading into the Holidays. We have noticed a dramatic change in the overall balance, minutes used and depth of the Heat bench and HC Spoelstra I think has finally got a nice rotation of the Big 3. If anyone comes out flat here it has to be Dallas who has had it's way with Phoenix, Portland and Milwaukee lately at home and now steps on the road playing a much tougher opponent in a much tougher spot = advantage Heat.

Thanks Alf. As a newbie around here, what I like best about all of your picks is the analysis that comes along with them. I think discussion makes us all better. Since the thread title is "NBA Monday", do you have a strong opinion either way on the Clippers -3.5 vs. Minnesota? The Clippers are home again after a road trip, and they look like they might finally be coming together a bit as a team (either that, or just nobody on Chicago could stop Blake Griffin!). Of course, there also is always the risk of a letdown after a win like that. Thoughts? John

I know the question was for Alf, but like yourself I enjoy the discussion and am relatively new to the game as well, so figured I would give my view. That being said I actually like the T-wolves in this one, as they are coming off an 0-5 road trip so far, while playing pretty solid ball. They have shown they are a team that doesn't give up (down 13 going into the 4th against Den, losing only by two in their last game). The clips have been playing very well as of late notching their first road win, which is why I think the line is a bit inflated, I see it more of a pick and as is such am quite happy to get four points. Still interested to hear Alf's thoughts as well though.

Yes, agree with Supaman, would lean to the T-Wolves playing their last road game before the holidays, 3-0 L3 ATS, played a very tough schedule, but hard to figure on the last road game of a trip some teams just cannot function and mail it in, others look it differently and go all out, coaching is a big deal here. Clippers are underrated IMO, I made the line -3, and would take them seriously at -1, but at this price if forced to play the game would take +4, +4.5 now.