Nba playoff picks thread

I LIKE the card. 523 Boston +4.5 1 weight 527 Den +5.5 2 weight. IF Den trails by 5 or more at end of 1q (which they won't), add Den live wagering another unit...... This line move on the Lakers is crazy. Who is Zig Zigging here?

[QUOTE=Fezzik;52007]I LIKE the card. 523 Boston +4.5 1 weight 527 Den +5.5 2 weight. IF Den trails by 5 or more at end of 1q (which they won't), add Den live wagering another unit...... This line move on the Lakers is crazy. Who is Zig Zigging here?[/QUOTE] It's because Karl is a dumbass. From my post at another site: In fact, despite my strong opinion on Denver prior to the series I'm on the fence with the Lakers -300. In terms of player productivity, the Nuggets aren't that outclassed but Karl is generally a pretty bad coach and his management of the players in Game 1 is a massive cause for concern for Denver backers. Historically in the playoffs, only the top 6 players have statistically any impact (the starting 5 accounts for 95% of wins and the 6th man accounts for the other 5%). It should go without saying that to win in the playoffs, you need your most productive players to play the most because losing 1 game is so terribly damaging to your chances of winning a series. Just look at how the series odds shift after every game if you don't agree with this. You want a very deep bench in the regular season so your best players are more rested for the playoffs, but if your bench players are seeing much action in playoff games that's not a good thing. Now look at the minutes Karl assigned for G1: Faried: 28 mins Gallinari: 36 mins Koufos: 12 mins Afflalo: 33 mins Lawson: 31 mins Harrington: 22 mins Miller: 27 mins Brewer: 23 mins Mozgov: 9 mins McGee: 17 mins This is not what you want to see in the playoffs. That their 3 best players (Lawson, Gallinari, Miller) only averaged 31 minutes is very problematic and a good sign for Lakers bettors.

I cannot see how Karl can dramatically change his rotations that his team is used to for the entire season. Denver is not outclassed by THIS Lakr pretender team. 1-1 Back to Denver.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;52008] Historically in the playoffs, only the top 6 players have statistically any impact (the starting 5 accounts for 95% of wins and the 6th man accounts for the other 5%). [/QUOTE] Do you think the reduced number of days off affects this strategy?

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;52012]Do you think the reduced number of days off affects this strategy?[/QUOTE] Minimally...

This compressed regular season was tailor made for a deep and young Denver team. Not sure if a Denver power rating derived from the regular season is useful. Lakers bench sucks but isn't as important with days off in between games.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;3439663] I don't think any of these offer extraordinary value worth adding on to the original bet. In fact, despite my strong opinion on Denver prior to the series I'm on the fence with the Lakers -300. In terms of player productivity, the Nuggets aren't that outclassed but Karl is generally a pretty bad coach and his management of the players in Game 1 is a massive cause for concern for Denver backers. Historically in the playoffs, only the top 6 players have statistically any impact (the starting 5 accounts for 95% of wins and the 6th man accounts for the other 5%). It should go without saying that to win in the playoffs, you need your most productive players to play the most because losing 1 game is so terribly damaging to your chances of winning a series. Just look at how the series odds shift after every game if you don't agree with this. You want a very deep bench in the regular season so your best players are more rested for the playoffs, but if your bench players are seeing much action in playoff games that's not a good thing. Now look at the minutes Karl assigned for G1: Faried: 28 mins Gallinari: 36 mins Koufos: 12 mins Afflalo: 33 mins Lawson: 31 mins Harrington: 22 mins Miller: 27 mins Brewer: 23 mins Mozgov: 9 mins McGee: 17 mins This is not what you want to see in the playoffs. That their 3 best players (Lawson, Gallinari, Miller) only averaged 31 minutes is very problematic and a good sign for Lakers bettors.[/QUOTE] Pretty stark contrast in Game 2 between how Brown and Karl allocate their minutes to the most productive players: LAKERS Kobe: 40 mins Bynum: 38 mins Gasol: 37 mins NUGGETS Lawson: 37 mins Afflalo: 31 mins Miller: 30 mins Gallinari: 27 mins Faried: 26 mins I didn't watch the game, but seeing as they lost by 4 (I know they covered the spread, but I have a DEN series bet) this is pretty frustrating. At least 4 of those 5 should be at 35 mins+. Did Faried get hurt or have really early foul trouble? That's the only thing that could possibly justify only playing him 26 minutes. Guy is an absolute rebounding machine, he surely could have gained a few more possessions that might have been the difference in the game.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;52029]Pretty stark contrast in Game 2 between how Brown and Karl allocate their minutes to the most productive players: LAKERS Kobe: 40 mins Bynum: 38 mins Gasol: 37 mins NUGGETS Lawson: 37 mins Afflalo: 31 mins Miller: 30 mins Gallinari: 27 mins Faried: 26 mins I didn't watch the game, but seeing as they lost by 4 (I know they covered the spread, but I have a DEN series bet) this is pretty frustrating. At least 4 of those 5 should be at 35 mins+. Did Faried get hurt or have really early foul trouble? That's the only thing that could possibly justify only playing him 26 minutes. Guy is an absolute rebounding machine, he surely could have gained a few more possessions that might have been the difference in the game.[/QUOTE] Also have series bet but I thought we were VERY lucky to cover. Took a miss and a tip in to waste a couple seconds at the end and not allow another foul. Got thoroughly outplayed and were dwon by as many as 19 late.

Very lucky no doubt. We couldn't hit a 3 all game long. Moving on: 529 Utah +11.5 1 weight. Good spot. Outclassed team. But off a blowout loss, gimme the Albinos. 543 LAL/Den OV 200. 0 weight. It's not available except at Heritage (and that means it must be at other books also). THis is a bad line. Bet it for up to $500. Caveat" We may be going 'under' 204 later....... 548 CLIPS-3. 0 Weight. One fine bet........but nowhere near as good as the LAL OVER........should come -3.7ish

note on LAL/Den game 3 total with close 205.........mkt will be on the over.