[QUOTE=IrishTim;42033]I'll say .05% for #1 and 99.5% for #2. The logic basically being that the probability of your bankroll growing after the 100 to 1 bet, irrespective of the EV, is so high (assuming that it doesn't take too long for the bet to clear) that it warrants such a stake. Expected growth, implied volatility, etc.[/QUOTE]
First, pardon my posting this quiz in Fezzik's NBA pick thread. The first posts involving spread differentials were appropriate, but I apologize to the forum for diluting Fezzik's thread. I just didn't think about the issue until I read Fezzik's post of the 2nd half play + the Laker total.
Anyway, Irish Tim got the essence of the my quiz, but the numbers are not so dramatic. Case 1 requires a 0.10% of bankroll bet, while Case 2 requires a 4.05% bet. This is remarkable because the bet in Case 1 is a very small bet for a very small edge over breakeven 50%. In Case 2, we again have a very small edge over breakeven 99%, but a relatively large bet, i.e 4.05% of bankroll. If by some reason, we re-evaluate our win % and come up with a new figure of 99% even, our optimal bet becomes zero!
