NBA Totals Feb. 6th I had a chance to analyze the games before 5. Not really comfortable with where I'm at so I have made no bets probably just watch the market but I have a few comments. My number is the first number and the big books offshore are the 2nd number.
501 184.5 186.5
503 186 189.5
505 175 178.5
507 182-190 190.5 Note opened 186.5
509 185 187.5 Note: opened 192
511 193 195
513 188 185
517 206 209
Comments
Both the Lakers games and the Clippers game 503 and 505 have the potential in my estimation to be good under's but I
haven't pulled the trigger. The Clippers score like crazy but really don't play fast. Their D isn't any good either though.
We know any Magic game has a low potential but they do pick it up and then you add in this fouling of Howard and I
have to admit I'm worried I'm too low. The flip side is that maybe the market is just too high.
The thing about the Lakers is I'm not sure I believe in those Philly home D numbers to the extent so far they've accomplished.
Game 510 the Bulls is interesting. It opened at 192 and that in my model was a very good number to go under. I'm still flagging as an under from the current number but my instincts tell me to beware on that. These Nets games get a little hot. No Brooks No Morrow though so they're very thin. You'd have to think this would be a low paced game already but you're matching a team like the Bulls vs a Nets D I think there is more potential for scoring there I'm worried about following that under too much and at the same time it is not like I want it over but that may be the play here at these numbers.
The Suns game just seems like an obvious under yet it was bet up 4 pts but there are a few factors there. Jason Collins is out for Atlanta and this guy is the cooler. Hard to believe what his stats are in only 10 minutes a game on the floor and he must be unbearable to watch. Michael Redd might get the start for Phoenix and he plays hot. These two guys can change the total quite a bit. I think the guys who bet it over were right from 186 but I'm not clear how good an under this is at a higher number or whether it is still a good over. If there is just extra variance in these guys stats I think under isn't bad.
In the Denver game they are missing 4 key rotation players and the replacement stats are hot. However, it is based on so few
minutes it is hard to get a read on it but I think I would be a little higher too if there was any credibility to the data on Farried and
Stone. But Miller and Harrington have pretty good D stats so if they take on more minutes today they could help the D to the extent you assume if they play more they can keep up their D stats within a game.
