NBA Totals February 1st

NBA Totals February 1st Phew, alot of work today on these on a big slate and not as much hockey today so NBA the focus. My number is the first number and the 2nd number is an approx average of the large offshore books. Today I will comment on the game if anything to say right after it. 701 183 185 Seemed to open 182 and has gone up. I can't say would make a play unless there was a bargain. Orlando stone cold but maybe due for a decent shooting although they appear hopeless. Wizards can be a cure for offensive ills. 703 178.5 178.5 I think the opener was a good number to go lower on the Bulls at 180.5. I might have taken a swipe at that. 705 171.5 173.5 I actually was pretty liberal I thought in my assumptions. These Celtics/Raptors games go at a snail's pace. If Rondo plays I need to jack it up a few points so it will be interesting how much the market moves it up. He's listed as doubtful but perhaps the market is factoring in that he might play tonight. I might truly without bias have a line of 169.5 assuming Rondo doesn't play. 707 178.5 182.5 The Pistons I usually like over but not here. This game opened 185 or so I would have really liked that under. There might still be some value for me to try an under at 183. Detroit's D has been horrible and getting worse so missing that extra bucket does bother me. 709 187 -191.5 196.5 It is pretty clear I like this game under but I always like a Twolves game under. I think Darko will be back in there and I'll tell I probably like the 1st quarter under when he's in there. They scored a tonne the Twolves vs. Houston and they play some high scoring games. I actually think Indiana has scored less than I might expect them too going forward and even allowing for that I just think this line is high. Yesterday, the Pacers went way over but this was the Nets D and their efficiency was incredibly high. I won't make it a big bet but I like the under for a small bet and if I can get someone who plays alot of these to agree I would raise it. 711 197 196 713 181 183 715 192 197 The Thunder game looks fantastic for an under as I'm 5 pts below and also made some adjustments to it to get even that high. These Dallas games have gotten hotter that is for sure though. That makes me a little nervous that it isn't quite as good an under as I would hope for. We know all of their playoff games I recall always had the total around this 197 number. I think I won a few under's on it. One key factor is the status of Thabo Safalosha. I have to say that if he doesn't play I'm a little more confused as to what the total should be for this game. He has odd stats and averages 20 minutes a game but these games ground to a halt when he plays. And when he doesn't play it is party time!! And I'll be honest it is such a big party I might have to lay off the under. It is such a big party I might have to bet the over if I find a good one. And if he does play will he get his 20 minute average? 717 190 196 All of these Rocket games show up as an under in my model A few of had success but I think I lost one or two more but I haven't bet them all. This total is probably this high because of the Spurs. I think I won an under with these teams in the last 2 weeks and it was easy. Will it be that easy again? The thing is with the Rockets their D does stink I think. I come up with 190 and probably want to bet that over but 196 does seem worth a shot under. 719 189 183.5 Sharp bettors bet this under from 186 I think at open. Now I'm way higher than the current number. Probably worth a shot on the over in this game for me. I will say no Nick Batum but it seems like there is more than enough room to account for that. You think of Portland Charlotte I do think of a total of about 178 so it is a little counter intuitive. No Augustin and I think the Charlotte games have slowed. I probably wouldn't bet over 186 where it opened but here I might give it a shot. 721 192.5 196 Betting a Clippers game under that it tough to do. Been beat on a few of those with good numbers. Those 4 3's they hit in a minute hurt that last game. The oddsmaker opened it at my number and they bet it over that. Is this enough to warrant an under bet? I don't know. If you beat me to Leroy's for the last under 197 good luck to you. That is about the only number I want under. Good luck today whatever you do.