NBA Totals for April 18th Huge schedule today and I have the games going before 5 I've formed my opinions. Still a lot of work left and I'll get to the later games after. My number is the first number and the second number is an average of the big books.
701 180.5 179.5
Rose, Deng and Augustin likely out.
703 205 205
Surprising I'm not lower on a game between these teams. I know I lost a Bucks/Wizards total earlier this year that went way over.
705 184.5 184.5
I see Irving not for sure out of this game according to the info I have and have read. If he plays generally the total should go a few points higher but he has been out awhile now. Some risk he doesn't play many minutes or isn't as effective.
707 187.5 190.5
I guess I like the under but a little weak kneed Have to be careful on these ones. I think I have bet these teams over earlier this year and won and bet them under recently and lost. I recall the game I actually had an over bet needed OT to win. Recently I think it was under 186.5 I liked them and the teams scored highly in the 2nd half along with late game scoring I think dictated by the situations and it went easily over. They also had more possessions in the recent game closer to 94 I think while their earlier games were around 91.
The Pistons offensively and the total of their games have really picked up and I think that is a big source of the difference. They shot their best of the year last night. In the last 10 they've averaged around 100 pts scoring and their season average is about 91.
It is that Pistons scoring I think that has the game a few points higher but it is certainly the highest total game between these teams this year as 186.5 was the highest before that. The OT game was actually a total of 179.5 and the teams did play to an under that also almost went to OT where just a total of 171 points were scored. These teams are not in aggregate expected to score IMO over 190 pts but it is the recent Detroit trends which has the total higher. I'll be a little under on this game.
711 185.5 188
I may bet a little of this under but not sure yet. Raptors missing Calderon (I think likely but not sure that I see) and even Kleiza. But that hasn't stopped their last few games going over against Atlanta although in their win it was likely the game scenario that caused the frantic number of points late to just get that over. Miami goes without Bosh and Wade tonight.
The teams haven't played at a fast pace this year at all. In fact my number reflects higher than the pace they've played at but Miami has scored very efficiently in the games. Without Calderon (and Bayless) Toronto should play even slower. But that injury to Bargnani should help an under since I think he's a key scorer but defensively he may be a little underrated on Toronto. Toronto has bounced back a few times from losses to get back to a defensive game. Without 2 of the big 3 have to figure they think they can win if they play a good game. The previous games were 191 so the line is down for the missing Heat players.
709 189.5 194
I also like the Knicks and Nets under. I see Gerald Wallace is probably and Williams is out I think. Both their games have gone under and I distincly remember posting one I liked earlier but the number was 198. Now those games were with D'Antoni not Woodson. But I think I had their totals for myself in the low 190's then but it is a different dynamic now. Anthony is also hot for the Knicks. But I certainly have the benefit of Williams being out for NJ and he almost sent the game I bet under earlier this year with a bunch of 3's. I think they even have moved the total up for Wallace playing. Certainly will help them score but have to figure he might see some of Carmelo defensively and impact the game more that way.
