NBA Totals for April 4th

NBA Totals for April 4th Another huge slate. I just have the first 8 games by rotation and will make an effort to add in the other 4 when I get a chance to work on them. My number is the first number and the 2nd number is a rough current average of the big books offshore. 702 195 194 Booker and Nene I'm not sure of their status tonight. And honestly not even sure what I would do with the total. These teams have played to a few under's this year and player slower than I might otherwise think. The Wizards had gone 9 straight allowing under 100 until Milwaukee and the Pacers have permitted 100 or more 3 straight I think. I'm the one writing so it sounds like an under but I always think that and seriously a game likely not to make a bet on unless someone else takes the lead 704 183 183 Bargnani getting better for the Raptors. 706 190.5 193 Liking a Spurs under. Those have been trouble. Got the Celtics here though. Ray Allen back. I'm probably close enough here that I won't bet it under as a lead. I'll see what the sharp bettors do with it closer to game time. I probably won't' go over with them if that is the way they like it but I guess I would go under. 708 185 186 Charlotte and Atlanta seems to play higher scoring than one would expect when they get together. 710 198.5 197.5 I'm not near Leroys but I might play over 196.5 but won't knock myself to get it. The teams played a lower number of possessions last game though. I would expect a faster game with these teams. I see a little money coming over now but I think I'm just more or less in agreement with the number. 712 193 195.5 Perhaps the oddsmaker is a little higher here because Eric Gordon is returning tonight for NO. Ariza, Kaman and Landry also I think will play so with a little more punch perhaps it is fairer to add a few points. These teams have played 2 under's so far this year and their possessions seem low to what I would expect. Based on that I almost would want to drop my number but with the Hornets extra power I didn't adjust. All in all hard to get a lot of confidence for me how good this under is. Another one I will watch the big money closer to game time. 714 204 206 Minnesota a slew of guys that might be out. Ridnour is a bad defensive player I think and he might be out and in another report I heard he would be out awhile. 716 199.5 204.5 I will bet the Bucks under. Believe me I know. Just sounds terrible. And the number of the books isn't even that high. They've already played a couple of games way over and last Saturday I bet these teams under and I won by half a point and they scored a bunch early and just a total fantasy to think I was going to win that bet even late but it did. And one needed 205.5. The teams average about 95 possessions over a game which is less than I would think compared to their aggregates. The reason these games are going over is the Bucks are just kicking the crap out of these guys and scoring at a furious clip. The early scoring seems high which means the games might just slow down when the outcome is decided. Not sure. The Cavs won't have Irving tonight. I think this is a big factor. Need someone with visual proof but the numbers tell me the Cavs score when he's on the floor. And it also tells me the opponents score. Of course we have to be careful as I assume he's playing against the better guys so some other guys picking up his minutes may not be much better---or---worse.. However, I think his O is more likely much more real and I know his 4thquarter scoring is actually quite prodigious. The Cavs are having big trouble scoring as it is. Presumably some D effort will be taken to actually try to win this game. I'm not sure the Bucks are really that good must be some hope stopping them with an actual effort.

It looks like Booker and Nene must be out for the Wizards. Their starting 5 is a hot group. Hard to read into it but the bettors playing this over now with the starting 5 for the Wizards. Looks like the right thing to do with that info. I wasn't betting it but if 194 is around it may flash as good to be over now or even 194.5 if determined to play it over.

No Gooden for Milwaukee. I've looked into him before and market views his as a defensive liability. His stats back that although comments I've read on his game don't nail him as a bad D player. Some other expertise would help but the market is liking the Bucks under a little more with him out.

717 187 185 No Kidd for Dallas. They played under earlier this year and the game was slow. I think they'll play a little faster but 3rd in 3 for the Grizzlies. If I could get 184 I might try an over but I'll leave it for now. Mavs coming off a really low scoring game. A repeat coming or a bounceback? 719 201.5 201.5 I actually have a bet under 203 although it is nothing special now that I've done the work. Might even get out of it. 721 193 196.5 5 Dimes has 197. I'm considering an under here but the money flows over here. The Nets have consistently flashed as an under the past few games it seems and hit them with winners 2 in a row. 723 187 188 The Lakers and Clippers have gone over their total both games this year with numbers in this area. Their scoring efficiency has been quite high. They haven't gone over by much though and I think one game by just one point. Their games have had average possessions of only 85 which would be lower than I would expect even for these 2 teams who are two of the slower teams in the league. I think if the pace picks up and they score well it will go over. The flip is another slower game with better D probably spells a grind out under.

A great illustration of having good numbers. For that Bucks under I had 205 and 205.5-115 salvaging a push and a win. Unreal that two Bucks games in a row vs. Cleveland end up at 205---the first one a miracle it didn't go over---and the 2nd one a bad beat if one had under less than 205. I think the teams scored 23 pts or so in the final 3 minutes of the game. It looked like desperate shooting and the score conspired to almost knock it over 205. I thought I was going to lose that in the final seconds. Without good numbers really both these unders are pushes at best maybe losers. The point I guess I'm really trying to make and one I really try to follow in my betting is AVOID betting Greek, Bet Cris, 5 Dimes and Pinnacle as much as possible. Try to do better than these books for what you bet. Especially smaller bettors. Bigger bettors have fewer options. If location prevents betting in Nevada that is one thing of course and it will hurt your results in this game. Nothing you can do about it but you do have to be more careful in your bets. These are great books to initiate plays of course but they're sharp for a reason. You're either going to out think them or out run them. But if you're not in position to out run them, you got to be that much smarter in this game. And if the idea is discovered first by other bettors it is these sharp books which are on a play first, there will be a tax to pay to chase down a number there over the year in pushed bets that could have won or losses for bets that could be pushed or won. It sounds like fun to bet a game under 204.5 put my feet up and watch it eating a bag of chips but it is not as profitable that is the problem with it.