NBA Totals for April 9th My number is the first number and the 2nd number an approx average of the offshore books.
501 182 188
I'm probably too low on the Raptor game but this has been a good profit center all year. It just seems occasionally I can get them on the Raptors. I took yesterday off though from the totals and I knew that Raptor under vs. OKC was the way to go. But I feel I got to put something on this one.
They've already played a few under this year and their average is about 90 possessions each. Calderon is back and no Bayless since he's hurt. Calderon is the first hope for an under on the Raptors. The big bonus is no Bargnani as I think the markethas just shrugged him off as a scorer. The Raptors were able to eventually score some points without him earlier this year but they had some real clunkers too.
I think Casey likes the way they are playimg D and they're in games. Bargnani went down for the second half last night and the Thunder rolled. The Pacers can get hot but the Raptors can really lock you down. It is going to be back to back for them but I do feel this total is high. It did open a point higher than this so I do think there is a little sharp money under and I see Carib at 187 which is a book that just moves with money an extra step or so I know they've been hit under and it wasn't me.
503 183.5 184
No Howard for Orlando. Money coming over since both games without him the Magic allowed over 50 pts in the paint. They do get Anderson back as well so I do think betting over makes sense but I have no bet on it.
505 197.5 197
A slam dunk over from the opener of 194 I think. Just have to tip my cap to the sharps they did their work. I did this game one scenario and got 200 so I still think there could be room for over but the teams don't play that fast together. Perhaps
an end of season meaningless game could be a shootout but I think there is little pride here. Both teams want to win. I think it was a slam dunk bet over but it might not be a slam dunk winner.
507 186.5-189.5 186.5
Gordon is questionable for NO. I think he's worth a couple of points on the total. Kobe is out and I'm sure Brown is fed
up with their D the past few games. Although I'm tilting over in my number not sure it is a bet for me. If I knew Gordon was playing maybe I'd go over at this number if it was the right lean from the sharp books. FYI it looks like Kobe and Bynum are the best +/- guys on the Lakers on the road for the season (Sessions is but only 5 games) I see Kobe -14 and Bynum +11.
509 184.5 186.5
I'm really close to going under here but no Tony Allen (who has been out a few games). Not sure what he's worth exactly but he's a guy I've seen, I've seen comments on and his stats indicate he's strong defensively. I didn't do too much analysis on this but I think his points allowed when he's on the floor per minute are lower than any of the other big guys on their team. I'm not really interested in over but it will keep me off the under. They've already played 2 under this year.
511 209.5 211
Okay, I gave them over 100 possessions each. That avoids an under bet at least for me. The Thunder have played their last 5 to an average of 182 pts but alot is their schedule. I looked at them vs. GS when they had Ellis and it looks like they play close to 100 possessions against them. I don't think this total will go much higher as I do think Brooks wants them to be more in playoff mode but it is the Bucks some of their 1st halves and such have been rockets. I didn't end up betting them under against Portland as the market has done a good job of keeping me off the under even when I have liked it while doing okay to give me the green light on a few others. I can't say I even like this that much under but if I plugged in 98 posseesions I would like it under.
Have to take a break and bet and try to find time for the later ones.
