NBA Totals for Jan 20th

NBA Totals for Jan 20th Let's go through the totals again with a big card tomorrow in the NBA and see if we can land some good bets. The first number is my number and the second number is a consensus of the major offshore books. 801 180 180 803 199 204.5 805 186 184 807 190 191 809 185 NL (Rose?) 811 183 180 813 180-185 NL (Rondo?) 815 177 NL (not sure Davis, Hedo maybe) 817 194 197.5 819 186-190 NL (Paul?) 821 189 189 803, 811 and 817 are of some interest. The Nuggets/Wizards game does have the potential to be hot. The Nuggets score over 100 quite frequently but I felt I was generous for the Washington O and possessions for the game and yet I still don't reach their number. 811 qualifies enough for me to be of interest to the over. Not sure why the difference as I didn't do anything here. I felt I even enhanced the Detroit D for Ben Wallace starting again which I will assume he will. If he doesn't, I would think this total should be slightly higher. (I doubt he would log alot of minutes even as a starter) 817 is of interest for me to the under although these Spurs games are hot. But the last one was a good under (and I do regret not betting itbut I was only 2.5 pts below) Here I am again but this time 3.5 pts lower. I think the Spurs would like to win with better D so there is some intuition to this play under as well here. The Kings were pretty impressive defensively in the 4th qtr vs. the Pacers. Hard to expect that to continue but gives some encouragement their season stats are worse than where they'll end up. I'll look at thsoe games not up first thing in the morning. There might be opportunity there as I can't believe how low the Magic/Lakers game is for me so I'll be interested in where it comes up. And the Suns game as well. I wonder if the opening line would be as low as mine.

Morning look Let's take a look after the heavy movers and see what we can do from here. 801 180 181 803 199 206 805 186 185.5 807 190 190 809 185 186.5 811 183 182 813 183 185 815 177 182 817 194 197 819 188 190.5 821 189 193.5 Comments 801 Portland just some noise. Bargnani still doubtful for Toronto. I think that leaves Toronto with 87 pts with a projected score. That is a score hard for them to achieve without Andrea. I don't think they've accomplished that yet. 803 I'm 7 pts off here. The hot and hotter. I notice a little lean at 206 under. If there were 207 anywhere I'd bet it. 206.5 at Greek and Cris I will leave. If it looks anywhere near good I will play under 206 or any other under that is good at game time. 805 Looks like 76ers in line. 807 There was a little move under on the Knicks. Not a big difference but have to agree that under 191 looked okay. I think a good number over might be my strategy here. 809 Rose still doubtful. No play for me on this game. 811 Market did move this a little higher. I think I will try to follow and find a bet to the over but I might have missed the boat. 813 Enough in line for me to leave alone. I do think the stats say go under this but it is close at least in my estimation. ' 815 5 pts difference and I expected that last night. The Magic are very efficient scoring wise and the Lakers D is very efficient. Now my injury list last night said Jason Richardson was out. He is playing. And Turkoglu is out. Well the numbers say that Richardson is you get two for your money. Worse offense and worse defense. With Turkoglu out he will hurt the offense and it will help the D but sounds like trouble with Richardson playing more minutes. I would say I would add a bucket to my total but the total will go up because of Richardson but also down since Turkoglu isn't any good. But back down because they will miss Turkoglu on O. I may really net out to not much over this and then bet the Lakers. From the LA side Kobe played 41 minutes. On D the Lakers can survive without Kobe (except when it really counts I'm sure) but the O is dead without him I think. Big difference there. I actually am comfortable being on the under in this game. It is one to watch for me. 817 I did bet this one a little under. No real change this morning. 819 Paul still questionable. I think the number is high but not enough for me to jump in. I think if Paul really does play and this moves up to 193 or so on that news I think I will bet under in this game. Or any under that looks good once all the news is out. 821 Once again the big money is on the Pacers over. I ate that last time and it didn't taste too good. I even agreed with it but I didn't make an adjustment this time for the Pacers. There might even be a GS angle here as well as a few of their recent games have been hotter. And I think some sharps think Indiana won't be as inefficient going forward. But I did see that 4th quarter vs. Sacramento and it was a disgrace to all basketball their offense. Since there are 2 opinions I think driving this over even if I disagree with one I have to be neutral on the other. Perhaps I will go under this at a good number but although a 4 pt difference to my own model it isn't an obvious play for me.