Morning Exam Let's take a took at these this morning. I didn't double check my math on the Celtics game. I'm way too low in my original number. My range should be more in line with 175-178. If Rondo doesn't play I think one would expect the lower score
701 194.5 194
703 175-178 (updated) 177.5
705 191 186
707 182 184.5
709 185 180.5
711 189.5 197.5
713 180 177
715 183 184
717 196 194
719 189 194.5
Comments.
My number was just too far off on the Celtics not sure how I ended up with that low range last night.
For 705 Detroit this has been a pattern as I've been consistently high in their games. But they went over last game
and I only missed covering an over by 1 pt after a move down by sharp bettors in the game before. The Pistons have 2 factors to consider though in their games. One Rodney Stuckey will be playing now and he will help their offense. But there is also a negative for higher totals when Ben Wallace starts. The Pistons have a bad defense and a slow pace
so not surprising their games can have variance. As I type this the game total moved back up to 187 at Pinnacle. I am going to take a shot at a 186 if I can still in Nevada if I can get out there or the best I can over.
707 as I type has been steamed over to 187. I'm not 5 pts off. These Bulls games have been funny. I'm going to say I'm too low here. The Bulls have been a lot of points in a few games without Rose. But Rose is expected back. The Nets went under yesterday but their D has been a problem. I won't be going under here just because my model says too. I would follow whatever sharp bettors do in this game. I will say the Bulls at home have shutdown a few opponents to some really low scores. Other explanations for the move over would be no Taj Gibson for Chicago. He is a stalwart defensively. Noah is questionable although I didn't think that he was as beneficial as I thought defensively.
709 the Bucks there was a move under there. These Bucks games I think go a little faster than other years but I should probably downgrade it a bit with Bogut healthy although he hasn't missed that many games. With Atlanta there does seem to be the potential for a really low scoring game. My understanding is that Atlanta does want to push their pace more than they have been overall. I might look at it over from these numbers if I get a pt better somewhere.
711 I'm just way off here. I've had mixed results to decent on Minnesota. They are a better defensive team with Ricky Rubio. The Rockets I have trouble figuring out. Their pace isn't that fast really but they score like crazy especially more recently. I looked at Lowry, Scola and a few of their guys and when they're off the floor their D is garbage in general and their past few games have been higher scoring. For Minnesota, take Rubio off the floor and the D is weak. You have to get a feel for how long he's playing. I'll try it under here as I can get 198 and hope for the best.
713 Fez made a good point on the Pacers game and the Lakers pushing it. The game did go over. Well, what about NO? Isn't it time there were a few more measures taken to somehow get somewhere near 100 pts in a game. But no play for me so far.
717 is a little low but not much difference/
719 I'm definitely lower. I think the market has seen a few of these Grizzlies game really rock and roll the past week or two. I forgot Curry is back for GS although and it may be an area that I can exploit. I think the perception is that Curry is a big assist to the offense but actually from what I see the Warriors score more when he's off the floor. However, I know sometimes he didn't start and played in the 2nd group and hard to read too much into his plain numbers. I know he can heat up and he can make some nice plays defensively and the Warriors are better with him on the the floor. I might have to defer to the hot Grizzlies here and even agree I better move my number a few points higher. I won't initiate an under here.
