NBA Totals for Jan 27th Just a huge schedule Friday night. Many injuries delaying the posting of many lines. Well, I don't delay so I got them all and will take a peak in the morning when I get up. My number is the first number and the second number is based on a an inspection of Cris/Greek/Pinnacle.
801 185 NL (Henderson? Augustin-I think definitely out)
803 189 191
805 173 NL (Rondo--I think out Allen?)
807 183 NL (Gordon?)
809 187 NL (not sure why as Bogut and Deng look to be definitely out.)
811 174 178
813 197 198.5
815 203.5 NL (Wade? Baron Davis?)
817 193 197
819 183 NL (Carter? Jefferson? Nowitzki out for sure I think.)
821 193 198.5
823 191 190.5
825 195 198
Comments
Let's look into the Denver/Raptors game. I have 193 vs. 198.5. There was an initial push up in this game and I bet under 199.5 and I'm hoping they don't push it again. I have been consistently low on the Nuggets totals but was beaten twice by OT so far on them on games that looked to be under. And Sacramento I was a touch higher and it went over. Still the Nuggets are a problem for me.
In the Raptors last game they had over 100 possessions for the first time in 18 games. Bargnani got injured in that game and is out again for Toronto. Magically they start scoring again when he's in the lineup. Now they do have Linas Kleiza back and he'll give Toronto more scoring than what they had when Bargnani went out before.
However, I just see the Raptors trying to play this game at a snail's pace if they can. Lawson won't play for Denver is my understanding. Overall Denver is very efficient and very fast but the Raptors D has improved not only because of how slow they play but their actual D. I have to believe Coach Casey without Bargnani has to emphasize the defensive assignments. They come off an OT win and a chance to win 3 in a row on the road of all things. Denver can win this game maybe even by a lot and the game can still go under. And if Toronto has a chance I would think it has to be a better chance of an under as well. And my BS model says go under. It is a meeting of (bad?) math and (worse?) opinion. What else can I do but bet it under?
817 Spurs/TWolves. These Spurs just go over it seems. They make their shots. And nobody seems to play any D. You'd think Duncan would be good but his stats don't seem that good. He probably takes the toughest 5 for alot of his minutes but I guess I would still expect better. I've hyped the point that Ricky Rubio makes a big difference for Minnesota yet their games still end up hot. I was ticked about losing that Rockets game under by a point vs. the Twolves earlier this week. But I guess I'm supposed to like this under. It seems like you get a little bang for your buck on Twolves unders and I can't believe the Spurs have this D as a blueprint for success and are they really this good offensively?
825 Thunder/Warriors. Maybe a game to get some help on. Sounds like an over but my number says it should be under. The Thunder have played better D recently and GS obviously has changed this year with Jackson coaching. I don't like under enough to bet it yet but maybe a bargain shows up on this game especially in Nevada but even at some of the offshore square books tomorrow.
811 Magic/Hornets. I'm lower than the market but I didn't bet it over. The Hornets have actually started to score. But this is the Magic. It does seem about once or twice a week a Magic game looks like it won't break 150. So I don't mind going under but at the same time perhaps the Hornets have had a little meeting to pick things up. The aggregate stats are that these teams are slow pokes.
I'll be watching the Heat/Knicks line and Bulls/Bucks lines as my line here I made a few adjustments just based on personal opinion and the bias might be obvious when I look at the real number.
