NBA Totals for Jan 30th I haven't had a chance to do all of the games but that is partly to do with spending an inordinate amount of time on one game.
I have the games starting before 8 so far. My line is the first number and then the 2nd number is the big books offshore.
701 183.5-190 190
703 180 179
705 186.5 185.5
707 184 181.5
709 189 189.5
711 196 198.5
713 189-191.5 187
715 185 186
717 196 199
Comments
I am just off by a tonne on the Bulls game. I have spent an hour on it trying to figure out what I am missing. What is more alarming is that it isn't being bet under from these numbers at least a little bit and is still being bet over. If I examined the points for and against I think I come up with a line of about 190 as well. And it does seem like the Bulls games have turned up a notch. We know yesterdays Bulls game was 190 total as well approximately. I really felt I had to be very liberal in my assumptions with what I do to get to a number of 190 and my absolutely peak number would be 192. I could get as low as 183.5 but I'll decide that is too low for this game although I thought it was reasonable but the Bulls D not as stifling on the road I would guess and the Bulls O vs. the Wizards D might end up being a little hotter game.
They played this year and the total came to 142 if you can believe that in Chicago I think. I want to absolutely say if this goes over it ain't going to be by much but if I see something good on this vs. the big books I'll take a whack at an under tonight on this one.
Big surprise (no!) I'm higher on a Pistons game and a Bucks game. And then play each other so it is a match made in heaven. It opened at 180 and I would have bet that over as a lead but Pinny up to 182. I'm still higher but these 2 teams don't inspire me as much when they play each other. No play for me but I'll see if I can snag a good number over later today. I doubt I'll see 180 so it will have to be something clearly better than the big books.
I'm a little low on the Twolves and Rockets and got beat with that nice number I had last week when they played in Minnesota. I don't show as much of a gap in this meeting and the big money has bet this over again. I think one more little push and I'd bet it under even on my own at5 199.5 or 200. However, I'm very interested in the status of Darko Milicic for this game. Ideally, if one is betting under I think you'd prefer him in the starting lineup.
I guess I like that Blazers game over vs. the Jazz. No Jefferson and No Raja Bell. It actually opened 2 pts higher but was bet back so I guess this is my opportunity. I don't think 186.5 will ever show up as the lean now is over 187.
I lost on that Clippers Nuggets under 207 last night which was a good number. They don't defend the Clippers. I also got beat on the Thunder Warriors total which flew over but I had a good number again. It isn't a big difference but I see a few 200's on this game and Bet Cris down to 198.5. Un 200 probably the right bet to do. Not sure it is a winner but....
