NBA Totals for March 12 Got some time to look at the totals tonight and here is what I have. My number is the first number and the 2nd number is an average of the big books.
501 195 198
Big warning 14 out of 20 Bucks games have gone over. 3 in a row have gone over and I think 8 of 9 with the only under winning being that game vs. the 76ers which came to 190 about a half point lower than the market. Wouldn't be surprised if many under bettors pushed or even lost that game. No Deron Williams tonight. I do like it under but I would have perhaps bet that Toronto game under against Milwaukee but took the day off yesterday from this work so missed a loser on the under there.
503 192 198
Here is one I'm just way off on. The Knicks games have gotten hot and I got beat pretty easily on the Spurs under vs. the Knicks a few days ago. The market flagged that for me so I got away from half my bet which was nice. These teams played and only had 90 possessions each but scored over 200 according to the stats I looked at. The Knicks games have been sailing over the last few days (no Tyson Chandler in that games vs. the Spurs though)Precisely the Knicks last 5 games have come to an average of over 210 pts. That is pretty hot. Their season average is only about 192.
But I think those 2 factors may have given me some line value here. And there are numbers out there higher than 198. I would expect more than 90 possessions in this game for each team but it still seems like a lot of points. No Luol Deng for Chicago tonight.
505 185,5 183
I'm really close to a small over play on this game but I'll watch the money on it.
507 203 206
I'm sort of glad I'm only 3 pts. lower here than the market otherwise I'd have to try an under. The Wizards games clearly picked up their scoring as they are about 206 in their games over the last 10. They're a fast paced team with no D I guess. The Spurs score like crazy when they have the ball. The game has the total makings of an over if the Spurs can't be bothered playing any D because they win this game so easily anyway. Somebody else would have to tell me to play under here and I definitely would but I wouldn't disregard an over either if the market tells me to play that.
509 187 192
I am off om this one too. I just see this as lower. However, the facts are the Pistons are scoring and winning more recently and their overall road D has been terrible. Those are two facts I don't like as an under bettor I will say that.
I'll still say that 192 has to be an upper bound on this though. If Al Jeffeson doesn't play I would think the betting would come on the under as well. Bet Cris has 192.5 so I'm a little tepid to make this a bet under and I could wait. If he does play and it goes up even further I will take a swipe on that under. If he doesn't play I'll do the best I can to get a stale 192 on it if the betting does come under.
511 199.5 198.5
513 183 186
I'm close to an under here too. But I'll wait for a signal.
There were more over's the last few days so the ohly one I played before the hour before the game is the Bulls under.
