NBA Totals for March 20 Here is what I have for today and some interesting ones IMO. First number is my number and the 2nd number is the current average of some big books.
651 188 188
653 199.5 199.5
655 Lower 199
I think I could run any number of things and not get to this total on the Knicks. I was 1-1 with the Knicks under on the weekend. I could be as low as 188 on this game I think if I wanted to be. I suppose I could get to 195 if I really wanted to. I could get to 200 in a real stretch.
The Knicks scoring efficiency has picked up the past few games and they have had well over 100 points a few times now with Woodson. The strange thing is that I think the idea there is that the offense will be slower paced and go through Melo and Stoudemire more without all of the jacked up quick shots. ke. less Linsanity. Woodson is known for his defensive coaching.
The Raptors games are slow although their games have picked up in scoring as well. In fact the only way one could get to this total is take the recent games of both teams and we can get a total of 200 IMO.
You won't get it from when they've played each other. Well under these numbers. But the trend is your friend and the trend isn't under. If one took the entire season of these teams we'd be nowhere near these numbers but I have felt the Knicks have underachieved offensively and Bargnani is back for Toronto now but hasn't been good. He is probably due to have a break out game. Calderon will start at PG and he's slower than Bayless.
I feel at least I have to bet this game under. It hasn't moved up much from the open.
657 191 190.5
Note: No Lowry for Houston possibly no Martin either.
659 202.5 205
661 202 204
These teams play hot. An average of 100 possessions each time and both games going over but note the total for those games closer to 190. Based on Sacramento's scoring recently and high totals and Memphis for that matter, head to head we're up 14 pts since those games. I'm under their number but I could easily be under 200 for this number. I guess I could like the under but a little spooked by it here.
663 202 206.5
For the 3 people who read this if there was ever anything to learn from it is watch the Bucks and don't bet under. I think we're now 11 of 12 over and 6 in a row and the one loss is by a half point and if you bet under at any time except one minute before tip you probably lost that one too.
Like the tech bubble the Bucks are really starting to blow the roof off this throwing in a few 220 games to boot. The Cavs game over just seemed obvious last time out. Portland loses Wallace here as a primary defender to trade.
Honestly would like some more room here to go under with Ellis in there, a clear trend over and Portland without Wallace. Portland can play fast too. God look out. Can't see how an under ever flashes as good here. That is about all under for me. Not my strategy to bet it over unless that is flagged but it isn't flagged now. It might be though.
This game did open 203. I don't know if 203 is really too low but it probably wasn't too high so the sharp money is over that and it probably makes sense even if my number is the same as the opener.
