NBA Totals for March 21st

NBA Totals for March 21st Big slate today. My number is the first number and the 2nd number is a few of the big offshore books average. 751 190 190 Note. The game opened at 194. I think they're right. Snooze you lose. I don't think I will do anything here. 753 184 184 Their last game was really low scoring under 80 possessions. That is slow. I can't even remember why my total is this high but that is what I have in my notes. Bayless might be out for Toronto and with Calderon their offense is slower. The total got knocked down from 186 which again at least to me looks correct. Definitely a game if the total came to 160 it wouldn't surprise me but I'll watch the sharp books on this one. 755 190 192 757 189 188.5 759 195 202.5 Never assume one is smarter than anyone but I feel this total is high. I will bet this under eventually today. I think any combination of points scored over the season just won't get a total this high. Now the Wizards did go through that run of very high scoring games where the totals routinely went over 200 but Nets games just haven't been that hot. I think any permutaion around this would result in a max of 200 or so and not even 202.5. The Nets pace is slow and they've added Wallace to the mix. He's one of the better defenders and his Portland stats clearly show him as a player where when he's off the floor there is more scoring against. The Wizards add Nene here. I don't know what he'll do really. It is 2 poor teams I guess and it could just turn into a shootout but I can't go over 202.5 even if I believed that. 761 189 187 Pinnacle at 186 on game and Bet Cris is 187.5 unusual for that large a difference. Not enough of an opinion difference for me to really want it over. I can understand no Ellis GS assumed to be lower scoring. 763 195 196 This one is being killed as I write it. Number has come down and still coming down. Looks like it was as high as 199. I think that was a good bet. Not much to do with it here. Maybe under might flag so good somehow it will still be a but but looks like it has been killed. 765 203-206 208.5 Well I'm starting to give back my retirement fund on Spurs unders. They got hot again I think I have dropped 2 in a row. I didn't come that much lower than their number here but I have to admit I'm going to the well again and going under. The total is very high probably because of recent games as each team's recent games have averaged well over 200 points. Even over the whole season I think a fair number would be over 200 for this total. Pekovic is doubtful for this game. To me, this is a big difference with the Twolves. If Milicic logs more minutes the simplistic view is they don't score as much. And is probably too simplistic but I think it will be enough for me to go under. With Rubio out he does help the Minnesota D but actually his stats as he played more got watered down a little I felt that he didn't flag quite as strongly anymore as making a strong difference in the games but I also believe strongly it is going to get influenced by who he is with, matchup against, total minutes, etc. and the analysis seems to be he is an active strong perimeter defender. So in total I think Minnesota's D is worse off but I think the Pekovic O hurts at least with regard to scoring potential and the total of a game. They have only played to an average of 90 possessions each in their meetings this year. That is low and far lower than I would expect so that is just another huge bonus to go under if there is anything to the strategy that these games will play slower vs. each other than other opponents. It is only 2 games but I like the trend because it is not like I think this total is any lower than it should be for some reason. 767 194 199 This opened higher at 201 or so. I think it is right to bet this under and I may go again here under. How many square under's can I bet? No Rodney Stuckey, Fernandez, Galinari, Nene (via trade)....I don't know there is a tonne of unknowns here but Stuckey is a huge part of the offense. They're a slow team to begin with. Denver missing a few gunners. It just seems high. The Pistons have scored much more recently and on this trip especially that one with Sacramento but I don't think it is enough for me to not play under. 769 188 190 Good luck today.

For the Spurs game I see the starting lineup for Minnesota is Williams, Webster, Love, Ridnour and Beasley. Not what I was looking for. Webster is a little hot I have to say that under won't look as good to me. The betting is going over even 208. I still haven't bet it under and the fact Pekovic is out might be good for the under but Webster in a many rotations that seem to score like crazy. Not many minutes probably some variance but might be enough for me to raise my number a bit. I still might bet this under but notice it is holding around 208 pretty firmly.

I'll win 2 bets and lose 1 and don't deserve that good. The market helped me on the Spurs as the 208 never was really any good to go under. But 105 was flagged as a decent bet under 1st half. It barely covered. These Spurs---and I've used this term---score like crazy. The Nets went under but Detroit will just fly over. And here I liked it under and they sort of flagged under 200 at one point as a good number so I bet. Look at the big sharp moves that I noted Clippers under which I agreed with but that game was fast right away. The Knicks under from 194 was great so those go 1-1. There was a late power move on Orlando to the over which I wasn't big on myself and the game almost middled. I think a late 3 beat the under bettors but that moved from 192 to 194 and almost landed 193, The Pistons under started at 202 so that big move looks to be a loser for sure.

Did you get a chance to watch the Lakers last night? Sessions was impressive, curious if he can continue that level of play. Seems like a big upgrade to the offense over Fisher getting more easy transition baskets.

I didn't have the chance to watch more than a few minutes but read a review of it. I would agree with you totally and I'm sure Kupchak is happy. Gasol commented exactly what you indicate here that Sessions is fast good for transition and can make his shots. He's been a streaky player it seems as I know he's had big games with Milwaukee and Cleveland and been the starter at times. But he seems to lose his job eventually. But the Lakers a different case as let's face it he's been with also rans. (although I guess he was there when LeBron was there...I can't remember and can't really recall his role.)

[QUOTE=Skeeter;51414]I didn't have the chance to watch more than a few minutes but read a review of it. I would agree with you totally and I'm sure Kupchak is happy. Gasol commented exactly what you indicate here that Sessions is fast good for transition and can make his shots. He's been a streaky player it seems as I know he's had big games with Milwaukee and Cleveland and been the starter at times. But he seems to lose his job eventually. But the Lakers a different case as let's face it he's been with also rans. (although I guess he was there when LeBron was there...I can't remember and can't really recall his role.)[/QUOTE] FYI Sessions never got to play with Lebron, his first year with Cleveland was 2010-11 when they won very few games, dead last I think. In Lebron's last season with Cleveland Sessions was on Minnesota another team that I think finished worst in the league. By far this is the best team he has been on and I think he has a chance to really help the Lakers offense. I am sure the totals will catch up but I would look for some early chances to play Over on this team.

Thanks Blue. I bet the Celtics under so far I haven't bet the Pacers under. I'm close enough to leave it alone unless the sharp books start betting it lower. The Jazz game is now 212 and I've seen 212.5. I'll just keep waiting on that one I guess. If there is never any betting under not sure what I'll do. Maybe a small bet under near game time or just forget that one too.