NBA Totals for March 7th Monster day so I made a point to drink some red bull and get a head start on these for tomorrow. My number is the first number and the 2nd number is an average of the big books approximately.
601 177.5 177.5
I bet this under 179.5 thanks to the fact I am in Nevada and saw it moving. I think the line is currently correct.
603 188.5 187.5
Surprised I am higher on a Raptors game and they are betting it under but nothing for me now.
605 192.5 194
607 189.5 195
I'm so far off here I'm scared make the obvious bet under. I did bet the Lakers under tonight when that flagged as too high. Trying to think of a reason and one I did come up with is that the previous Wizards games have averaged about 215 total points.
I'm not even going to bet this I'm so far under this maybe they'll bet it further over. I'm also concerned my model is so flawed to come up with 189.5. I'll double check my math on this one and get back to you.
609 188.5 190
611 194 195
I am so ridiculously generous to even get to my total here. The fact of the matter is even the oddsmaker has added roughly 5 pts to the "right" total for a Bucks/Bulls game but felt they had to I'm sure as these games have just been red hot at the start. I recall I think 120 in the first half of one of their games.
I don't even think if I recall in my exam the games are even that fast. I have to theorize the Bulls just score at will agagainst the Bucks.
The early money is under which is correct IMO. I could easily have a line of 192 or 192.5 for this game so there is probably value on it but these games have continuously overshot their totals but you are getting 5 more points than the other ones if you like under.
613 187 193
Another game just a huge difference. The theory I came up with here why I'm so far off is perhaps a meeting of the Clippers starting 5 vs. that Nets D is just going to lead to mega points. But I won with the Heat under tonight only a few points higher and I got the Nets at home now.
The bottom line supporting my number I think is just how fast this game can be played at. The early money is betting this under again and that just seems crazy obvious. I probably have no choice but play a little under here and see what I end up with. This can't end up at 196 for crying out loud.
615 198 195.5
Pekovic is doubtful so I have to be a little careful before going over on this game. I didn't factor him being out or do the work but I do think he would bring the total down and might even bring it down by this difference so I can't touch this.
617 201.5 202.5
619 195.5 199
Vegas has some 200.5 on this. This one has to get bet under. In fact I have bet the last few Spurs games under and cashed easily. I think I will make it my retirement plan.
The game could go fast I will say that but the Spurs have really picked up their D at home and actually all year at home I don't think it has been too bad.
621 206.5 208.5
623 191 192
625 194.5 194.5
