NBA Totals for May 3rd/May 4th I limit my exam to others plays and just looking at off numbers.
Tonight I have Dr. Bob on the OKC/Dallas under 192 or better for a play. 193 is available. 194 is available offshore and 194.5 is all over Nevada. I even see a 195 at Stations if my screen is correct. Truthfully, my own number on this game is 195.5.
However, the Dr. from his writeup looks to be projecting around 94 possessions for the game and I guess was a little higher. But the teams so far in this series have been lower than my number. So this is a series and I especially regret not betting over the first game (I think I saw 191 on that maybe?) that I've leaned over the numbers given out. But if their projections of possessions are accurate and we get a little lower I think the number should be around 192. I can't say I would want under 192 as he recommends so I just don't know how low he really thinks this should be but I can go under 194.5.
I am okay with it. I'll bet a little under on it.
Let's look at the Fezzik under 179.5 on the Bulls tomorrow. This is a series I said the other night I clearly was biased over so far. And the Dr. liked it under but just a little lean so seems there is a difference of opinion possibly brewing. Fez out faster here with a play as we don't know what the Dr. will say.
I did my number and I came up with about 176.5-178. I don't know about the 3 weight but I am at least interested. What I think has changed is that we go to Philadelphia for the game instead of Chicago and the oddsmakers have gone up 3 pts probably based on the last game and I think I'm showing that the game should be a little lower in Philly. Here are 2 other things I'm noting.
(1) With no Rose a total of a game involving the Bulls should be lower so if we adjust for that we have to assume that if Rose were playing the oddsmakers and bettors would have the line at 182? or so right now. Maybe even 183. The teams have actually played 4 overs to 1 under this year with the totals varying from 175 to as high as 184 and of course you've seen the first 2 games of this series. But at least adjusted for Rose I think at least the game total is near the peak of what it would be for a game between these teams this year. Their regular season games scored 169 180 (which was an over) and 187 which was with Rose and was over 181 for an over winner.
(2) A negative for the under and which has been a reason I haven't liked it this series---whether I'm right or wrong in my theory the results have been correct---is I don't like Richard Hamilton in the Bulls lineup as I do think the games are hotter when he's in there (regarding the total of the game to be an under. I like RH). My one theory is that the Bulls play lower without Rose of course but Hamilton was out for most of those games from what I remember. But with him back I don't think it is such a slam dunk that these games are lower.
The starting rotation of Watson Hamilton Deng Noah and Boozer is despite the injury to Hamilton one of their 6 most frequent rotations from the regular season. And guess what? It is the highest scoring rotation of any rotation in the top 6 most frequently used per offensive possession.
And if I were to ask you the worst defensive unit out of those top 6? Well, I probably gave away the answer. That is too easy.
You have the one hand that is subtracting points because of Rose but you have this unit here which has been used enough to be already in their top 6 used and it is the highest scoring unit for both them and the opposition per possession. And I think it is the starting unit for tomorrow's game but obviously that is a variable.
I don't know what to make of that. It is too small a sample. Outlier? But it is honestly enough for me to say that Hamilton is trouble. The truth is it isn't that much of an outlier since their most frequent unit has only played less than 300 minutes together in the regular season and this unit is over 100 minutes. All of the injuries have the Bulls lacking continuity.
All in all? I'm going to wait on this play. My base number is lower than the play so at least that is a good start. But if Hamilton really negates Rose than basically I am at their number or close to it----and my gosh probably higher by a point. I don't know enough about the situations to play under in Game 3 whether that is part of his play but I'm inclined to force myself to get better than the big books in this game to play it under (if played at all). I do like the way Philly plays very strong 2nd half D at home. I could wait go to a book where there might be a deal in a 2nd half under and go that way if I just had to get on this. It is 3 weight so I want to respect that it might be a good bet and there are a couple of reasons it might be (ie. two big overs, an adjustment up based on that) but do we have a fair line though?
