NBA Totals for May 5th

NBA Totals for May 5th Fez on the Grizzlies under 187.5 for a 3 weight. My own number is 185.5 so I do like it a touch under myself. Not enough to bet it on my own but might do it if Fez on it. However, I would like to get better than this and I do think 188 or better is in reach so I'm not betting it now. If they bet it under from here I'll just bet less or I guess even passing it could occur. What I like a little about the under here is that the trend in the number of possessions is lower for these teams than I would expect. I would think they would play over 90 possessions but so far only an average of 90 in the playoff games and I looked into their RS games and the last 2 of those was in the mid 80's. I think if you can get a game in the 80's we can pull this out on the under that is for sure. Now all of their RS games were unders but only by a combined 10-12 pts so they're tight. The first game they played they did have well into the 90's in possessions and it was an under by scoring 189 as the line was around 192. What I'm seeing which is good for us is that we have a higher total for this game because the games have been over but yet the pace is slower than I would expect but not by a lot. But it is a positive. Caron Butler being out is a positive as well. He plays in all of the frequent Clipper rotations and he has great offensive stats. He has to be worth a couple of points although the impact of BG and CP probably magnifies his offensive contribution but he would be wortha few points (but I didn't adjust since Young concerns me) I think there are some negatives though to the under and 2 I can think of are the following: (1) BG and CP playing more minutes in the playoffs than RS. Their stats are just phenomenal offensively. The Clippers just don't need that many possessions to score points. If these guys play extra minutes it just reasons that the total needs to be higher. (2) Nick Young. Need help here. I don't know his Clippers stats separately but I'm thinking he's trouble for keeping games under. If he plays more minutes as a swap with Butler I'd almost think that the totals need to be higher. But I assume that Martin and Evans etc. will get more time and those guys would lower a total. I can't work on this to figure out what it needs to be but he's an X factor for me. Even Evans stats don't really show he effects a total under but I'll say he does if I could adjust it properly. The Grizzlies were one of the few teams during the year that I felt my overall modeling biased their games higher. I don't know if I was right or wrong overall. I won a few. I lost a few. But I did note that more games than not I felt were an under and the Grizzlies were one of the few I would project higher it seemed. So I actually like that I'm lower for a Grizzlies game than the number since they are a team I don't feel I short change them on the scoring of their games. If they could play into the 80's in possessions I think the under will win. I think though at 90 possessions it might be close. Close enough that 3 units seems like a lot for me especially at 187.5 I think at 93-95 it is probably a loser. But I do think I can win under with 92 especially if I can get 188.5. That is really the number I'm looking for on this total for a unit bet for me. Good luck no matter how you play it.