NBA Totals for May 6th

NBA Totals for May 6th We have Fez on the 3 unit over 183. This is a series actually that I've liked over but haven't bet any of them. They did play one over. So it is a losing idea so far. This is mostly a situational play I guess for Fez on a 3-0 series. My number would be around 187. I think Amare is in the starting lineup I see. Sounds good but obviously who knows how effective he'll be. I do think these teams can definitely play above this number for scoring and I don't even need the help of a 3-0 series I wouldn't think. Now the problem with my 187 is that these teams are averaging about 85 possessions per game in this series which would be significantly lower than what I would expect. These teams had a RS game with a total over 200. Miami and the Knicks have had their paces of their games go down throughout the season (The Heat I assume by strategy and the Knicks related to the coaching change). You can guess if we get 85 again it seems hopeless to get over 183 with how these teams defend. (The Knicks allowed fewer than 1 pt per possession) . I did bet this one over and hope that we get a game closer to 92 or 93 possessions and hopefully we will given the situation of the series.

Roughly it looks like over 90 possessions in the Knick game. Bkeiler summed it up best not even 20% of the 3 pts shots were made in the game overall had to be a big part of the difference. I'll say this was a good bet that lost. (Wow. Imagine that.) Anyway, it looks like Fez and the Dr. on the under for the Denver game tonight. A little late posting this. My number is 200. Not too big a difference but I like it under a little. The teams have played slower paced games than expected. If that trend continues it is an even better play. However, on this one I do think there is a belief among analysts that Denver will push the ball more on their home court since that is what they need to do. I admit I didn't see the last game. They seem to win handily. Denver wants to get the ball up the floor before the Lakers can set so they don't get Bynum blocking 10 shots again. But I guess that is the idea against everyone so perhaps there shouldn't be any "over" adjustment for this strategy because it sounds like it is the strategy every night if they play to their strategy. They have 7 games in the books and 6 unders. I used 96 possessions they've averaged 92 so if that were to come my number of course would be much lower. Perhaps as low as 190. The Dr. had 192 so we're not really far off except I don't want to count on that slow a game to win this bet. I'll put a small bet on the under and do the smart thing and hope 7 of 8 unders win. (God sounds like an over just based on that doesn't it?)

Depends on whether the book adjusts the line based on the trend. Kind of like how Flyers/Penguins total was inflated because of the abnormally high power play conversion percentage.