NBA Totals March 28 Monster schedule in the NBA today. I might have a few plays for myself but nothing I have bet so far. My number is the first number and an approx. average of the big offshore books is the 2nd number.
501 200.5 201
503 189.5 191
505 190 189
Notice the adjustment for a Knicks game as I'm actually above their total.
507 201.5 202.5
The Nuggets game is interesting for me how the math changed for me as the game is played in Toronto. The Nuggets road D has been terrible. And the Raptors overall defensively have regressed in the past few weeks.
I recall perhaps in January these teams played in Denver and the line was 197-199 and I only had 193 as the total and the game did go way under. In fact they only played with about 90 possessions each.
You have both teams perhaps at an inflection point where their D has to improve. The Nuggets beat Chicago and Toronto just let Orlando do what they wanted and had their worst game of the year on D I think. Casey wasn't very happy and I think Denver is in desperate mode to get a handle on this road D starting off with a couple of blowout losses on this trip. Toronto likes to slow the game down if they can.
Perhaps the situation is strong again for an under. I'll watch it. I would prefer some betting under before I jumped in but there seems to be little movement in this total so far.
509 192.5 195
This is at the high range of the totals of their games so far this year. From the Greek DB I see 180.5 190.5 and 195. The teams have gone over twice with both those games going over 200 pts. Those were the lower total games. The total got jacked to 195 and then kaput....181 they play to. Don't follow the trend too long.
So we have evidence that these teams can go over this number and go under it. In aggregate I think these games are a little slower than the projection I have so my feeling is the over's are coming from the efficiency of the Pacers offense vs. the Nets. And I'm pretty sure I expect them to score efficiently but they're beating that. It is close. The Nets have lost every game to them so far perhaps to not be shutout in the series they'll have some defensive focus but not sure how much it matters but I think I might stick a little under here. The number is also up 2 pts from the open.
511 190 189
513 180.5 181.5
I think have played a couple of dead under's this year with scoring under 170 and a game that went over 200.
515 208 213.5
Bigger total so more variance. They only had 90 possessions last game each team and Sacramento won not the Spurs. I think it is a game that the bettors can jack up some more or perhaps finally one number will show as a decent bet in Nevada or at an offshore book that deals a little better on underdogs and under's. 214 may be that number. The Kings are near the bottom in defensive efficiency and the Spurs of course are near the top in offensive efficiency. If the Spurs do score they might not care how much Sacramento does they'll just know they'll win the game by a lot. These games of the Spurs or Kings they come out of the gate red hot and is trouble for the under. But I'll be watching for a bargain on the under in this game. And No betting the 2nd half doesn't work part of the advantage is just hoping that first 6 minutes isn't a scoring fest.
517 191 190
519 194 194.5
Good luck today.
