NCAA BK Picks

659 Kent St +10.5 I was anticipating that this might get a bit higher but it seems to have settled in at 10.5; might want to wait to closer to game time and hope it goes to 11 or 11.5. No doubt a tough spot for Kent St to go into Colorado and compete against a Colorado team that definitely seems to be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the snub in the tourney. However I am not sure if that same motivation will continue to carry them here. Burks is going to be a tough cover and Kent st smaller lineup could potentially cause Kent St match-up problems all over the floor. However I like the fact that Kent St covers the three and had the best FG% allowed in the MAC. You could argue that Colorado has had it a little easy playing TXSO and Cal (without the starting center); two teams that are not defensive minded teams. Kent St has had go across the country to play @ St Marys and @ Fairfield and win close games to keep their season going. They seem to be playing with good energy even after a tough 1pt OT loss in their conference tourney champ game where I thought they were the better team. Probably will know early how this will turn out, if Colorado gets out to a DD lead and Burks is hot than it may be tough for Kent St as they are not an explosive offensive team. I am thinking that they can control the tempo and keep this much closer than the 10.5. Thanks for the acknowledgement Redskins. Lets keep it going.

657 CollegeofCharleston +8.5 Mainly a lack of focus and energy will be what I am betting on. I do not think Wichita St will have the same focus after beating Big 10 and ACC opponents. Wichita St shot 21-46 from 3 over the last two games; do not think that trend continues. They do struggle if the three is not falling with no go-to guy that can break down defenses, although they do get contributions from many different players. CofC does have that guy in Andrew Goudelock and I like the fact that he is coming off a game where he went 3-12 FG and 0-6 3PT; normally 40% from 3. CofC managed to win a game where both teams shot poorly and I think this will be a good bounce back game for Goudelock who is also playing to show NBA scouts that he can play at the next level. Wichita St is by far the deeper team and they are at home, but I am looking for CofC to get the pace up and make this a high scoring close game. 8.5 too many.

775 Miami/Alabama OVER 130 and 775 Miami +5.5 Alabama look ahead game playing 3rd consecutive NIT home game getting ready to go to MSG to play in NIT final four. The tide uncharacteristically shot their way to a win over NM and feel their defensive focus might be waining a little. Miami shoots and makes 3's and they have the talent on the floor to score against Alabama. They should be able to break the press and get the pace up in their favor. Bama might find themselves in a big hole early which should open up the game. This Miami team might be the best 6-10 ACC team ever; losing 11 ACC games by an average of 5.45 points. Without the 2 duke loses that number drops to 4.33 so they are usually in the game but have trouble at the end of games. Miami tends to foul a lot which should help the OVER along with this game being competitive throughout. Like the OVER play a little more than Miami +5.5.

809 uconn/sdst over 129 UCONN is going to try and get the pace of the game up a little quicker; SD ST seems like they will be willing to do this. Most people feel this game is going to be quite competitive which should help the total. Also both teams shoot FT over 70% and Connecticut gets to the line a ton. With the game being almost a home game for SD st I think UCONN is going to attack early and try and get a lead to force SD to play quicker being behind. 2-1 Yesterday. I will double check the record but I think it is 18-25-1, that is also after a 3-10 start I think.

806 Florida -2.5 I should preface this by saying that I have been on the other side of BYU since the loss of Davies; really did not see any way that they got past Gonzaga and they did big time. Florida has size inside and weapons outside and I think after last year Donovan will have a plan to keep the Jimmer damage to a minimum. BYU defense has shown recently that they may be under-rated, but Florida is going to be much more difficult than their previous opponents as they have athletes all over the floor. The two guards for Florida are playing well and if they can manage to hit 50% of their quick sometimes "questionable" shots, they will be able to control this game. It seems to me that there is some that feel Florida was lucky to get past UCLA because UCLA was not able to make shots and FT but really Florida kept the pressure on UCLA and has been good all year late in games. I do like the way Florida responded to a tough UCLA challenge after breezing past UCSB and really BYU has not faced any pressure yet. Florida will be able to get up early and I do not think BYU will respond to the pressure. Last years experience for Florida will hopefully help this group give a goodbye the the BYU Jimmers.

811 UofArizona +9.5 Might be able to find some 10's out there, but still feel this is a strong to very strong play at 9.5. This line really surprised me when it came out as I thought Duke was getting way too much credit and Arizona not enough. Thought it to be way too big of a number especially after plenty of Duke backers might have fallen off after the Dukies last game. No doubt Michigan played well and made some big shots along with their D causing some problems for Duke, but is Arizona only 3 points better than Michigan in this matchup? I think they are much better and might have the most effective player still playing in the tournament in Williams. As long as Williams stays on the floor, I think Arizona has a good enough supporting cast in Hill, Jones and Fogg to stay with Duke and possibly pull off the upset. I am going to have a small wager on the ML, but the value play will be taking all of this candy in the 9.5 points.

885 SantaClara/SMU OVER 130 Seems like this time of year OVER's tend to hit more and more but I really like this game to go well above this number. Santa Clara a team that lives and dies with the three; they have 4 guys with green lights that can get hot from distance. They also have Foster who has taken and made more 3's than anyone in D1 (pretty sure that stat still holds up). This team also likes to play fast and is a go to take the quick shot and try to hit SMU before the defense is set. I know on the other hand that SMU is going to try and slow this game down, work the half court, use their size advantage and try and keep the score in the 50's. I just do not see that happening with this Santa Clara squad that is playing their first post season games since Steve Nash I think (didn't look it up, could be wrong). Santa Clara is going to shoot the ball from deep as they will not be able to compete inside. If the shots are falling, we may see SMU play a little quicker. If the shots aren't falling, we may see more fast break points and even quicker shots by Santa Clara if they fall behind. These Santa Clara guards tend to also crash the boards on the deep shots which also tends to give up more possessions and FB points. One thing is for sure, Santa Clara is going to win or lose with the 3 and I see plenty of points either way. Here is a stat that means absolutely nothing; Santa Clara has played 36 games this year, only 5 have totals less than 130. I know the WCC is not exactly a defensive minded league but the main idea is that they want to get the number of possessions up so that they can shoot more threes.

885 SantaClara/SMU OVER 130 UP, UP, UP Looks like this is up to 132 most places.

514 Florida -4 Florida has a good combination going right now with size inside and guards playing well outside. I do not believe Smith for Butler is 100% after the fall he took against Wisconsin. I was surprised he came back in after seeing the injury replayed about ten times. He will have a tough time inside against Florida if he is at all hurt.

760 WashingtonSt +3 and 760 1WashingtonSt +1.5 Wichita St no doubt has been on a roll, but I think they are going to have trouble with Washington St in New York. The last time Wichita St lost was on a neutral floor where they shot 7-29 from 3; obviously if the 3 is not falling for them they struggle a bit. K.Thompson has been on a tear since his suspension and I think that focus continues here. Should be a close contest regardless, splitting my play for the first half and game. I do like Washington St to respond better to playing in MSG and win this game.