Need Advice Please

Need Advice Please Need advice please. Some creative ideas or suggestions would be helpful. I want to learn and improve on wagering strategies. I stay with one amount for every game lets say its 1$. I want to make 50$ this 09/10 season (CBB,NBA,WNBA) I have a winning strategy - I play one game per day - passing when I dont see a good play - when I go above one game per day I lose or stay even in the long term. Its as simple as that. My three year college basketball record is 174-102 - records were 54-26 /07, 64-36 /08 and 46-43 last year - it was a bad year. I became aware of this strategy when I entered into a college basketball pick of the day contest on the basketballforums.com Before that time I still won with a winning percentage of about 54-56% but played hundreds of games that I shouldnt of. I follow the NBA during the year and play a few games in the regular season - but wait for the NBA Playoffs to wager. I am always up a few games with a 12-8 average record. I do very well in the WNBA, it is my strongest sport due to a variety of reasons. The WNBA made up for my bad performance in CBB as I won the last 15 of 17 plays at the end of the playoffs in October. I believe my record on this board is 22-12 at this time. I played multiple games on two occasions of course and went 7-7. Suggestions please on how to get to $50 by October 2010?

Mathematically it is very unlikely that you can win 50 units in a season if you average one play per day. If you increase your unit to $2, then you only have to win 25 units in a year, which is more feasible, but you also increase the chance you will go bust. Bankroll management separates a lot of winners from losers. I deal at casino parties in my spare time. (Yes, I have a lot of jobs.) I was on dice Saturday night, and they were hot, hot, hot. But at the end of the night, when everyone cashed in their chips for raffle tickets, we didn't give many more than we usually do. Everyone started with 2,000 chips, and you got one ticket for every 100, with a max of 30. When the dice were smokin', nearly everyone at the table had more than 3,000 chips. What should you do in this case? Set 3,000 aside and futz around with the rest. What did people do? They started dropping purple in the field and black on the hard ways. Eventually, the dice turned. And at the end of the night, it was like any other. Lots of people with almost nothing. Bad bankroll management. I don't know how relevant that is. I guess reading Lake Tahoe kid's posts is causing me to veer off topic too. But here's what I am getting at. If your bankroll is $50, and you're betting $1 per game, then you're trying to double your bankroll in a year betting one game per day. That's not realistic. The way I recommend you look at it is to just bet 1-2% of your bankroll every time, depending on your confidence in the pick, and just see what happens. Having a set target as your goal can cloud your judgment and cause you to like a game more so you can bet more.

Dave, appreciate your posting here - very solid. With the low volume and consistent win % I'd bet 2%-4% of your bankroll on each play - Fez uses 1% to 4% with most plays being 1% to 2%. But you obviously play a much lower volume than he does. Then when your bankroll reaches a certain $, adjust the % up or down. If your win rate stays consistent at 54% or higher you'll continue to make more and more money.

Thank you for replying. I would like to hear from others as well. I never understood the bankroll thing. I start in Nov. with 0.00 and work my way up. I play every game for 1$(example). I really dont have a bankroll. It seems I should play every game for 3$ - I would have to be up 17 games by October 2010. Which is doable and I believe I can get there a hell of alot earlier than October if I am patient, disciplined and work hard. The most I have been down is -3 games in Nov early Dec. I believe there are so many great plays provided during the year in college, NBA and WNBA that you just have to wait for them (being patient - passing on days - while watching games, studying stats etc) then they appear. Maybe I am answering my own question and need to wager 3$ on each game. The thing I would have to overcome is the psychology of moving my amount up. The killer for me would be playing more than one game per day. I have found the more games you play the more you lose. Its a long 12 month season now with the WNBA ending in October.

Dave, I'm not a professional sports bettor like many on this site. But most of the ones I know will pull the trigger on any bet where they determine it is +EV - whether it's 1 bet, 10 bets or 30 bets on a given day. Of course if it's 30, what happens if they go 10-20 - thus the need for a bankroll and betting only 1% to 4% per bet out of it. You are obviously most comfortable playing one game or none per day - if it works for you, stick with it. Your win % is very, very good. If moving up your betting level makes you nervous, you likely shouldn't do it - it might make you play differently, i don't know. But I'd suggest locking up profit, moving up lightly, lock up more profit, move up, etc - develop a plan you are comfortable with and then stick to it. If you're only comfortable doing what you are now, just stick with it. It will just take you longer to hit the 50 unit win goal equivalent is all. Keep up the good work.