Prof Meyer's NBA Side Play #2 -- 11/3 All trends and systems quoted below can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL).
[B]Oklahoma City –8' over LA CLIPPERS[/B] – Kevin Durant had a sub-par performance in his last game – a humiliating 120-99 loss as a 6.5-point home favorite over the Jazz. Durant had only ONE assist to go with SIX turnovers and he corralled only four rebounds. The favorite for the MVP will have his game face on here. In franchise history, the Thunder are 20-4 ATS on the road when they are off a loss in which Durant had fewer than three assists. More importantly, they were a sizzling 11-0 ATS in this spot last season, covering by an average of 11.4 ppg. They were 7-4 straight up, losing in Cleveland, Denver and twice in LA vs the Lakers.
Also, the Thunder are 10-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Thabo Sefolosha scored fewer than 10 points, 9-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Russell Westbrook was NOT the Thunder's high scorer and 9-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which James Harden had more turnovers than assists.
As a team, Oklahoma City is 11-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists, 7-0 ATS (+6.7 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 5-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Indeed, the Thunder should be able to impose their will on the reeling Clippers. LA played the Spurs relatively tough on Monday, but they were only 8-of-16 from the free-throw line. One of the most revealing stats for a team’s character and passion is free-throw percentage and how they respond to game in which they shot poorly from the line. The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-13.9 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Eric Gordon did it all for the Clips vs the Spurs, shooting 10-of-17 from the field to lead the team with 23 points while chipping in 11 assists. This, however, is no reason to play on the Clips here. LA is 0-9 ATS as a rested single-digit dog when they are off a loss in which Gordon was their high scorer. They have lost these nine games by an average of 16.1 ppg and failed to cover by an average of 10.6 ppg.
Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Oklahoma City 109 LA CLIPPERS 88
As always, comments welcome.
Prof Meyer
