Prof Meyer's NBA Totals Play 11/1 All trends and systems quoted here can be verified on-line using the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL).
[B]Portland at Chicago OVER 187[/B] – The Bulls trailed throughout much of the game vs the Pistons, but turned it on late to win 101-91. Chicago is 7-0 OU (+13.1 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest off a win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters and 6-0 OU (+8.9 ppg) at home off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points (they were down 21 vs the Pistons).
Derrick Rose has taken on more of the scoring responsibility this season and this points strongly to the OVER. In their opening game loss to the Thunder, Rose was 12-of-31 from the field for 28 points and in their win over the Pistons, Rose was 13-of-27 from the floor for 39 points. Chicago is 4-0 OU at home when Derrick Rose took more than 20 shots in each of their last two games, flying over by an average of 29.5 points per game. Whenever we see an OU margin like this one, we naturally assume that the game listing will peppered with overtime games. This, however, is not the case here. All four qualifying games went only 48 minutes and all four went over by at least 20 points. Even though this trend is "only" 4-0, it makes sense and it has a HUGE average margin.
The Trailblazers are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS this season and all three of their games stayed UNDER. We’ll grab the line value with the OVER here. Portland is 5-0 OU (+8.9 ppg) with at least one day of rest when they have won and covered their last three games.
This is the third game of a four-game road trip for the Blazers, with a game in Milwaukee tomorrow. Not only are the Blazers 6-0 OU (+13.3 ppg) when playing the first of back-to-back road games, they are 4-0 OU (+12.8 ppg) before playing the Bucks.
In Portland’s last game their point guard focused on assists and their star focused on shooting the rock and it produced a win. This points to the OVER, as the Blazers are 5-0 OU (+12.8 ppg) with rest on the road after a win in which Andre Miller took fewer than a dozen shots and 5-0 OU (+9.9 ppg) after a win on the road in which Brandon Roy took at least 20 shots.
Finally, we’ll mention a couple of league-wide systems that have strong margins. The Blazers qualify for this system; “The League is 7-0 OU (+18.0 ppg) on the road with at least one day of rest off a win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter. The Bulls qualify for this one; “The league is 7-0 OU (+18.4 ppg) off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters.â€
While many of these trends -- individually -- are not very compelling, the majority of the evidence points to the over and that’s our play. We estimate 55%-57% that they score more than 187 points; and that, we feel, is worth an investment.
MTi’s FORECAST: Portland 100 CHICAGO 98
***************
Comments Welcome.
Prof Meyer
