Prof Meyer's NBA Totals Play: 11/3

Prof Meyer's NBA Totals Play: 11/3 All trends and systems quoted below can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL). [B]San Antonio at Phoenix UNDER 208[/B] – Tim Duncan has been a bit careless with the ball lately and here, on the road in a game that is close to pick, he should be very deliberate. This should lead to the Spurs getting deep into the shot clock and a lower scoring game that expected. Indeed, San Antonio is 0-11 OU on the road after Tim Duncan had more turnovers than assists the last two, falling short of the posted total by an average of 19.5 ppg. Since this player-based trend is exclusive to MTi Sports Forecasting, we are confident that we are getting full line value with this trend. In addition, San Antonio is 0-5 OU (-10.2 ppg) after a win in which Manu Ginobili was NOT the Spurs' high scorer. San Antonio is primarily a defensive team. The Suns eliminated them from the playoffs last season by scoring at least 107 points in every game and sweeping them 4-0. In fact, the Suns have scored in triple digits against the spurs for seven straight games and all seven went over. This is why the OU line for this game is this high. However, each of the last two overs should have stayed UNDER. In game three of that series, the game was 5’ points under with 30 seconds left and each team took a three-pointer and made it to put the game over by a half-point. In their last meeting, there was a 4-point play and intentional fouling in which the Suns were 4-4 from the line over the last 30 seconds of the game to put it over by one point. BOTH of these games would have stayed under a line of 208. So, while many will quote the fact that San Antonio and Phoenix are 7-0 OU their last seven meetings, this record is misleading. We can’t imagine the Spurs trying to make this a full-court game in Phoenix. We expect San Antonio to try to out-rebound and out-defend the Suns, rather than try to outscore them. Turning our attention to the Suns, we find that they are off a loss to the Lakers in which Steve Nash totaled only eight points. This points to the UNDER, as the Suns are 0-5 OU at home after a loss at home in which Steve Nash scored fewer than 10 points, staying under by a significant 16.1 ppg. The line value here is with the UNDER. MTi’s FORECAST: PHOENIX 98 San Antonio 92 As always, comments welcome. Prof Meyer

I actually loved the write up, I bet 'over' earlier, likely will throw back some,BUT I have to say I HATE the forecasts of games landing 10 points off the posted line. Pure tout marketing IMO, and EVERYONE does it. Lines aren't off by 7 points. The truth is that an unbiased correct forecast of 203 would be enough for me to bet 100k on a game...........getting 5 points of line value.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;31704]I have to say I HATE the forecasts of games landing 10 points off the posted line. Pure tout marketing IMO, and EVERYONE does it. Lines aren't off by 7 points. The truth is that an unbiased correct forecast of 203 would be enough for me to bet 100k on a game...........getting 5 points of line value.[/QUOTE] I understand completely and I agree that a line that is off five points is HUGE. However, I'm not sure that there aren't NBA totals lines that are off by double digits. The trick, as you know, is to identify them. In the past I have had many games in which I thought the total was off by 20 points and was "right." By "right," I mean that the game finished near my prediction of 20 points off -- and it was clear early in the first quarter, by the pace of the game, that I was indeed right. I have a lot of player-based trends involving the point-guards and they are the ones that control the pace of the game. The linesmakers are not aware of these trends so I think we're getting all the line value we can. That said, one of the worst things that can happen to a novice handicapper is that they predict a result that is 20 points off the line and the result matches their prediction. Then they have the false impression that they were right about the game. The simple fact that the result matches the prediction does not mean that the prediction was "right." For an analogy, let's say an amateur hold'em player makes a number of bad decisions but he gets lucky. He probably will think he made "right" decisions and this will cost him dearly in the long run. The same things happens with NFL coaches. If they make bad decisions yet things work out for them nonetheless -- they can't recover. They think they're geniuses and the continue to do what has "worked" in the past. Romeo Crennel is a great example. The guy stumbled through a season in which every break went their way and they finished 10-6 -- and Derek Anderson made the Pro Bowl(!). The Browns' next season was a disaster because Crennel thought he was a good coach -- and he was fired. Regards, Ed

I just cannot find ANYONE who can hit 58% ATS......... Given this, any forecast by anyone of 3+ points on games away from the line is just silly........since no one wins at this clip..... Sure, 'everyone' talks about how good their projection models are, how well they have done, BUT as soon as they start putting in official picks BEFORE the game starts, it gets to be tough, tough sledding. Stardust invitational. 50% ATS lifetime. 15 years.

Yeah, I went over this in baseball with Prof Meyer when his forecast was a 4 run margin. Jest of it was that the forecast wasn't a computer model forecast and just written number like you said. Joe Sixpack doesn't want to buy touts picks that claim the line is very close to his, or that he hits 54 or 55% ATS.

Let me start by saying I like Prof. Meyers from chatting back and forth a bit. I'm not into the technical, angle, trend type of handicapping, but I find his analysis really interesting. You gotta crunch numbers, have power ratings and make your own numbers, but not everyone bases it totally on trends and angles is my point. I have to commend him on his courage at posting his plays, and giving a thorough analysis. It's interesting to see how the picks play out. That said, a line 20 points off that's not a NCAA hoops totals bet in November is probably a stretch. Even those cream puffs lines are 12 points off at the most. 20 points off the betting number means at, say a 1.8% average (gorilla math, I know the push % on the betting number is normally 2.1% or so for the average NBA total of 192 or so, but numbers farther away from the median are going to have a lower push %, so I'm giving an average of 1.8%), is going to give you about an 88% winning vs. the betting line at -110. That's a lot.

Final Score Predictions I do not invest much time at all with the forecast of the final score. I'm not doing any math. I just take a (somewhat) reasonable guess. Perhaps it is an optimistic guess. It shouldn't be taken too seriously. FYI... I have been posting my NBA plays at VegasInsider.com since 2006-07. Overall, the sides are 507-471-28 and the totals are 345-294-7. A complete listing of all the plays are available on their website. Of course, I think I'm a lot better handicapper than I was in 2006-07 and I certainly have a lot more trends, systems and analytical power than I have in the past. We'll see. It's going to be a fun season. I'm looking forward to it. Prof M.

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;31750]I do not invest much time at all with the forecast of the final score. I'm not doing any math. I just take a (somewhat) reasonable guess. Perhaps it is an optimistic guess. It shouldn't be taken too seriously. FYI... I have been posting my NBA plays at VegasInsider.com since 2006-07. Overall, the sides are 507-471-28 and the totals are 345-294-7. A complete listing of all the plays are available on their website. Of course, I think I'm a lot better handicapper than I was in 2006-07 and I certainly have a lot more trends, systems and analytical power than I have in the past. We'll see. It's going to be a fun season. I'm looking forward to it. Prof M.[/QUOTE] Thanks so much for your analysis and information, I find it very useful and wish more people would include writeup of pick instead of what most do. Thanks and please keep these coming.

Prof, you are appreciated. Keep up the good work.

VERY good, I few notes. 1. Vegas Insider has at least a 1.0% grading inflation bias IMO, since they always give the very best number on the screen to the capper, even if it is at a silly book that takes no action. Also, that number for a good handicapper disappears immediately based on the 1st bettor hitting it. 2. I am not surprised your totals did better than your sides! 3. 2010 is MUCH tougher than even 2007. Dr. Bob never understands this citing his '20 year' winning record. BUT......10 years ago, I would be getting Browns +6 hosting NE not, +4.5! A 2 year record on picks in many ways is MORE stat. significant than a 20 year record! So.......you BETTER have a raised game because without out your results will suffer greatly. Actually, this was a big part of the Stardust Invitational disaster results. A lot of fossils/old farts who likely could win playing stuff in 1988 who quite simply GOT THEIR ASSES KICKED by the 1998 marketplace. Similar to some old guy poker players trying to play vs. Durrr.......UH OH>.......and if these guys got crushed in 1998, one can only imagine how bad they are doing in THIS market.