Prof Meyer's NBA Totals Play 11/6 All trends and systems quoted here can be verified on-line with the Sports Data Query Language.
[B]Houston at San Antonio UNDER 210.5[/B] – Both Both of these teams are well rested and there’s no reason to think that they will not play defense here. Houston, especially, has to get back to playing tougher defense. Houston has allowed an average of 122 ppg this season on the road, but that was an opening back-to-back set vs the Lakers and Warriors. This game should have a more deliberate pace.
The Rockets are 0-10 OU (-13.4 ppg) on the road when they allowed at least ten points fewer than their season-to-date average for two straight games, 0-6 OU (-16.7 ppg) when they committed more than 25 personal fouls for two straight games and 0-6 OU (-17.9 ppg) as a dog with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
The Spurs were very sloppy with the ball in their 112-110 win in Phoenix, committing a season-high 23 turnovers. It only the second time since the start of the 2006-07 season that San Antonio has committed more than 22 turnovers in a game. Well, the Spurs are 0-8 OU as a rested home favorite after a win in which they committed at least twenty turnovers, staying under by an average of 15.2 ppg.
Also, San Antonio is 0-5 OU (-13.5 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and 0-5 OU (-10.6 ppg) as a favorite after a road game in which they allowed more points than expected, but won nonetheless.
Shane Battier scored only three points on 25% shooting in the Rockets’ latest loss. He should be squarely focused on defense here and that should led to the UNDER. Indeed, the Rockets are 0-7 OU (-9.4 ppg) on the road with rest after a loss in which Shane Battier shot worse than 33% from the field.
Finally, the Spurs are 0-5 OU after two away games in which Tim Duncan had more turnovers than assists in each, falling short of the posted total by an average of a staggering 23.5 ppg. The average OU line in these five games has been 195.1, yet the average final score has been 86.2 to 85.4.
These two have met 59 times since the start of the 1995-96 NBA season. The highest OU line in all these match-up is the one in tonight’s game – by far. Grab the monster line value with the UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: Houston 93 SAN ANTONIO 95
Before I get flamed for my final score prediction -- I will state that indeed I do believe that this OU line is off by double-digits. Note that I'm not saying that the line is off by double-digits as far as two-way action is concerned. This might be the right line to get the same amount of money bet on the over and the under. However, I'm confident that the center of the Gaussian distribution (Gaussian-like anyway) for the actual total number of points scored in this game is at least ten points lower than 210'. Of course, it still may go over. We'll see.
Comments welcome.
Prof Meyer
