Professor Meyer's 2010-11 NBA Futures To read about the complete history of MTi's NBA Futures, use the link below:
[url]https://killersports.com/nba_futures.pdf[/url]
[B]5-Star Futures Play of the Year Orlando OVER 55 Wins[/B] -- The Orlando Magic continue to get no respect. They have gone over their season futures win total for five straight seasons. They won 59 games in each of the last two regular seasons, but their win totals line is significantly LOWER than it was last season. Perhaps it is their disappointing performance vs the Celtics in the second round of the playoffs after dominating the Hawks in the first round. Perhaps it is the fact that the Heat are getting all the attention this season. Whatever the case, this line is too low.
First of all, the Magic should be extremely motivated to finish atop the standings in the East - it will be a race to the top between the two Florida teams. Orlando has an advantage because they face the Heat three times over the first five weeks of the season -- before the Heat's drastically revamped roster has had a chance to develop some chemistry. They meet on Friday the 29th in Miami - the Magic's second game of the season. If the Magic are getting significant points here, look for a big play on them from MTi Sports Forecasting.
In addition, the Heat will have distractions in South Beach and will be saving themselves for the playoffs. Both Lebron James and Dwyane Wade know from first-hand experience that the regular season is not nearly as important as the playoffs. The Cavs were the number one seed in the East last season, yet they were eliminated by Boston nonetheless. When Dwyane Wade won the NBA Championship with Miami in 2005-06, they were "only" 52-30 during the regular season.
Orlando has proven stars in the starting five and terrific back-ups, adding Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson in the off-season. We love how J. J. Redick has grown and look for him to contribute quality minutes this season get mentioned for the sixth-man award.
All of this and all everyone is talking about is whether the Heat will beat the Lakers in six or seven games. I just read an entire three-page 2010-11 NBA season preview and the Magic were never even mentioned! The Magic are a TEAM that has been together for some time now. Dwight Howard is only 24 (he will become 25 on December 8th) and he is just getting started in this league. In the off-season, in an effort to get even better, he worked with Hakeem Olajuwon on positioning, footwork and scoring.
Dwyane Wade and Lebron James are getting a lot of press right now and this can only motivate and focus the Magic. The Magic should have their game faces on from day one. They should be on a mission. Stan Van Gundy has instilled ferocity in this team. Dwight Howard has been asked so many questions about the Heat by the press, he refuses to answer. Orlando very rarely loses to bad teams and they should rack up a lot of regular season wins.
There has been a concentration of power in the East. Basically, there are three very good teams. Miami, Boston and Orlando. Atlanta, Chicago and Milwaukee should be solid as well. However, there are a LOT of very bad teams in the East this season: New Jersey, Cleveland, Toronto, Detroit, Indiana, New York, Philadelphia and Washington. Unless they suffer several key injuries, the Magic will never be a dog against these teams. With the concentration of power, Orlando has the potential to win a lot of regular season games simply because they face a lot of bad teams.
Miami and Boston have nothing to prove and will be saving themselves for the playoffs. The Magic, however, have a chip on their shoulder. They feel disrespected, dismissed and overlooked. Barring major injuries, they will be an underdog in fewer than ten games this regular season. We don't how far they'll go in the playoffs, but they should finish with the top seed in the East and win more than 60 regular season games. Perhaps an even better play on the Magic over 55 wins is them to win the Southeast division -- 4-1 at some places!!
MTi's FORECAST: Orlando Magic 64-18 in 2010-11
[B]4-Star New Orleans OVER 41 Wins[/B] -- The Hornets were 37-45 last season, but Chris Paul was out for 37 games with a left knee injury and Stojakovic had a lingering back issue all season and missed 20 games. Obviously, there is an assignable cause for this drop-off. Darren Collison was solid in Chris Paul's absence, but he is not a floor leader like Paul. Their win total this season, 41, is surprisingly low. Last season, it was 46.5 and injuries resulted in only 37 wins. Why is this season's line six games lower? Are they expecting Chris Paul to miss another huge chunk of the season?
Unlike many of the NBA "experts" we love the addition of Trevor Ariza at the expense of Darren Collison in a four-team trade over the summer. Collison grew tremendously in Paul's absence and this allowed the Hornets to get a quality player for him. Ariza played in Houston last season and both starting guards there (Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin) love to score themselves, as they were 1-2 in scoring for the Rockets in 2009-10. In New Orleans, Ariza gets to play with a pure point guard who will be looking to give him a good look at the basket rather than trying to create his own shot. Yes, Ariza had a career-low shooting percentage last season at 39.4%. However, he simply did not fit in to the style of ball played in Houston. He has a great first step and if he gets the ball when he is open, he will take the shot, or drive around a rapidly closing defender. Ariza should be ecstatic to play with Chris Paul and David West and, along with Marco Bellini, should blossom as yet another scoring option. Ariza also gives the Hornets a lithe 6'-8" defender that can handle the opposition's main scoring threat, whether it be a shooting guard or a small forward.
With Marcus Thornton and Stokajovic coming off the bench, the Hornets can bring in "instant offense" when they need it. Indeed, this team is below the radar. They should be every bit as good as teams like Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Denver and perhaps even San Antonio and they should feast on the weaker teams in the East.
New Orleans has a favorable schedule this season. They get 22 unrested opponents, they get 9 teams playing the second of back-to-back road games (up from six last season), 9 teams playing in at least their third straight road game (most for them since 2006-07), they only play 9 games all season with no rest vs a rested opponent (fewest for them since 2000-01) and they only have one 4-games-in-5-days stretch all season.
With the continued emergence of Marcus Thornton and a healthy Chris Paul, this team should finish well above 500. Their rookie head coach, 38-year old Monty Williams might just win Coach of the Year. What about the Hornets at 12-1 to win their division?? The Mavs (see below), Spurs and Rockets all are vulnerable.
MTi's FORECAST: New Orleans Hornets 46-38 in 2010-11
[B]3-Star Dallas UNDER 50' Wins[/B] - The Dallas Mavericks had a futures line of 46.5 and 48.5 in the last two seasons respectively and they won 50+ each time, rewarding their backers. However, this season, they have a much tougher schedule and Jason Kidd is now 37 years old and will turn 38 in March. Over each of the past seven seasons, the number of back-to-back road games the Mavs had to play was in single digits. This season, they have to play eleven, which is the most of any team in the league. Young teams are able to handle this, but it takes its toll on older teams. If the Mavs got to HOST a large number of teams playing the second of back-to-back road games, things might balance out. However, in 2010-11, Dallas hosts only four opponents that are playing the second of back-to-back road games all season. No other team has fewer. So, not only do the Mavs play the greatest number of back-to-back road games in 2010, they host the fewest as well. Last season, in 2009-10, Dallas hosted FOURTEEN opponents playing the second of back-to-back road games and this was the highest in the league. A drop to only four is huge and should cut into their win total significantly - especially because the Mavs are a veteran team and will save themselves for the playoffs, much like the Celtics did last season.
There is no reason to believe that Nowitzki will be better this season than he has in the past. In fact, there is evidence to indicate that he is on the downside of his career. Last season, he scored "only" 22.9 ppg, the lowest in six seasons. Further, last season was the first time in ten years that he averaged fewer than eight rebounds per game (7.7 boards per game in 2009-10). Similarly, 2009-10 was the first time since the 1996-97 season that Jason Kidd averaged fewer than 6 rebounds per game (5.6 boards per game in 2009-10). Rebounding numbers indicate passion and toughness. What is crucial is that last season, they had a very favorable schedule with regards to opponent's rest and their stats STILL decreased significantly. This season, they will be wondering why their opponents seem so young, so fresh and so quick. The answer is that Kidd and Nowitzki are a year older and they are going from the best schedule in the league to the worst as far as back-to-back road games are concerned. The fact that their Season-Wins line is HIGHER than it was last season gives us solid line value here. Take Dallas UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: Dallas 45-37 in 2010-11
