Push Percentages

Push Percentages Does anyone have the correct push percentages for College basketball? I suspect the correct answer would be 3 dimensional in that the push percentages get a little diluted as the game total increases but assuming an average game total I'd guess they go something like this: 1 - 3.5% 2 - 3.5% 3 - 3% 4 - 4% 5 - 5% 6 - 5.5% 7 - 5.5% 8 - 5% 9 - 4.5% 10- 4.5% 11 - 4% 12 - 3.5% 13 - 3.5%... I have no data to support my guestimate, just years of betting experience. I know the heaviest points are 5 - 8 due to the fouling at the end of the game. I'm torn on many occasions whether or not to buy points so this would be extremely helpful. I believe NBA push percentages are pretty similar in pattern although I believe the College figures are higher due to the game being so "short". Thanks in advance for sharing any information you have. Cal

3 is worth WAY more than 1........NO WAY those 5-8 numbrrs are that high.

I think the 5-8 is very close to that high in college. If not, then why would anyone ever buy? You need to have a 4.5% push percentage just to justify a 10 cent buy. I think it's well worth the 10 cents to buy in that range which implies the push percentage is 4.5% or greater. Why do you think they give you so few (what is it, 4?) points on a basketball teaser? It's because the points are so valuable (and they want to rip you off...). I'd love to hear from someone with the data to support their opinions. Thanks anyway, FezMan!

Try looking at [url]https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/[/url] 3 is the only number over 4.5%

I was looking at Pinnacle at around the 4-8 numbers and they allow you to move to the next half point for it seems 12 cents or 13 cents.There wouldn't be any mistakes I don't think so they have some profit margin in those figures and I would have to say that the neutral price is probably anywhere from 7 cents to 10 cents. I would simply use 8 cents. I have been kicked out and limited for buying points so many times at offshore books it has become a strategy that is difficult to use. But I had learned from Fezzik that the only real value in buying points was if one could buy at least 2 points all at 10 cents her half point Of course after doing some arithmetic I figured this out as the more one buys for 10 cents one is getting more value on the last half points purchased. Bet Jamaica is now extinct so let's freely whack this place. I had several accounts barred for purchasing 3 points at NBA games. The basic strategy was to buy when I could get an extra half point from the major books----which would happen a few times per week. On purchasing the final half point where let's lay the line was +7-110 I would be at +9.5-160 so final half point was to purchase to +10-170. At -160 it is an event priced like 61.54% and at -170 it is an event at 62.96%. But we are going to assume that 10 is worth 3% so you can see that my final 10 cent investment has actually purchased me a bargain as if I assume the 61.54% is the correct fair odds at +9.5 then +10 would be 61.54% + 2.5% which is 64.06%. Sorry to let the cat out of the bag for sharps but I need more people using this strategy so if I can get in again doing it I'm not the only one. How sissy are these books? One usually gets the limit or collar put on for buying points after a game sides on your number.

Thank you both for your input. I'm still reviewing your comments and the SBR calculator. Clearly a useful too but I wonder how confident they are in the push percentages shown. Does anyone (Anthony?) know how much data is behind it? What years they used to produce those percentages, etc. Skeeter, I'm with you in your comments except I didn't understand what you meant by the 2.5% you were adding in at the end of your example. To me if the "price is right" at -160 and we buy to -170 on the 10, then we win .6154, we push 3% (in your ex.) and we lose (1 - .6154 - .03) * 1.7 for a net positive result of .01258. If the push percentage is 4%, then the net result is .02958. So clearly, the value of the number we are buying onto is even more important than the fact we are going from 160 to 170. However, we have to make sure we are getting value along the way. That's why accurate push percentages are critical. If I make a selection at -110, then I have to believe I'll hit at least .5238 to break even. If I'm going to pay -160, then I have to feel that extra 50 cents got me up to .6154. That's 9.16% worth of push percentages I have to capture in my line move of 2.5 points. That's an avg. of 3.66% / pt. Looks to me like I capture that almost anywhere in the spectrum according to SBR. I'm going to continue analyzing this but it seems to me buying points at 10 cents / half point is worthwhile in baskets. I rarely buy from Pinnacle since they overcharge. Sometimes I sell there. In football, I only buy when I'm getting a break on the price on/off the 3 or 7. I think baskets are a different animal with most points having significant value and as you point out, there is even more value the more points you can buy, especially onto numbers with a solid push percentage.

First off, you're welcome. And I don't know too much about college basketball---actually nothing---so your experience could mean alot here and I'm not ready to entirely discard your push percentages. I have no idea what they would be and my references are Pinnnacle and the SBR calculator and to the extent they're wrong or misleading in certain situations well I'd be off then. Your analysis is bang on I don't know why I wrote 2.5% and then 3% later in the paragraph. I meant those numbers to be the same. For the purpose of my illustration I think you could use almost any decent estimate of the push percentage purchasing the final half point between 5 and 10 and I'd think the marginal value of that last half point is pretty good--and hopefully the half point before that. Using your push percentages it would appear to be a fantastic deal if the 10 really pushes 4.5% of the time. One issue I think about in this area regarding the push percentage and buying points is how accurate is it to use 4.5% for the 10 for a game lined at 7? What adjustment -presumably less---do you need to do since the push percentage of a 10 might really only use data for games lined between 9 and 11. And the other issue is fouling and meaningless buckets so that any games that might land 4 or 5---or even 9 or 10 for that matter--- get siphoned into a pool to land around 6-8 and I presume why your push percentages are higher for those games.

For that matter, I imagine it is worth breaking this down into non-conference, conference, conference tournament, NIT/NCAA/CBI/etc. tournament.

Skeeter, if you meant for the 2.5% to be 3% in your example then I believe you have to add just 1.5% to the 61.54% since you are only buying onto the 10 and not through it. Still, clearly some value exists. I agree using the push percentage for 10 on a game lined 7 is overstating the value a little. Clearly there is some dilution in these percentages as the original line gets away from the number in question. Still we are only talking about a couple of points away and this is a game of estimates anyway. I see a lot of gravity toward the 5 - 10 range in hoops. Teams fall behind by 1 with 35" to go and foul like crazy often losing anywhere from 5 - 10. Teams up 15 late take the foot off the gas and get bad shots and the losers close the gap into that same range. Seldom do they foul to push themselves much past 10. You see lots of teams quit after missing that 3 point shot down 5 - 7 realizing they can't make up the ground by fouling again with only 10 - 20 seconds left. My estimated percentages may well be high, but I'd sure like to have a definitive answer from someone with lots of data to support their position. Perhaps the SBR numbers are just that; I don't know. I think it's way overkill to talk about breaking it down by conference or tourneys etc. Sure an argument can be made for different behavior in those situations but that's cutting the data down too much and probably wouldn't yield fruit. I would agree that I've seen ridiculous fouling in some tournament play taking you beyond 10 but we can't account for everything. Good to have in the back of your mind though before clicking the mouse on a large bet. Thanks.

Thanks for the correction. If I examine Pinnacle on a game right now and I want to revisit that. I have them at USC +6-109, +6.5-121 and +7-135. A key piece of information for me is that Pinnacle is offering on Stanford -6-101, -6.5+109 and -7+121. Let's assume the neutral pricing of the game at +7 odds is -129 and the neutral pricing of the game at +6 odds is -105. The implied cost to me of buying off the 6 and onto the 7 then is 56.33-51.22 which equals 5.11%. Thanks for the link for this SBR calculator and I see if I'm reading it correctly that the odds of a push at 6 are 3.57% and the odds of a push at 7 are 4.03%. And I see Calsport's numbers for pushes on the 6 and 7 are at 5.5%. My first conclusion is that the SBR numbers cannot be correct. They have to be too low or I would conclude that selling points at Pinnacle is a profitable strategy as I can move the game at retail prices from -6-101 to -7+121. If these numbers aren't worth that much I have a hard time believing Pinnacle would allow me to bet the game at these prices. I watch a lot of hockey so I might not get this entirely I admit. Calsports push percentages do seem high in that assuming 5.5% that I could just buy points off the Pinnacle menu and that would be a profitable strategy. However, my opinion would be Calsports numbers are better estimates of the push percentages at least at the 6 or 7 in the USC game in particular today vs. Stanford. To the extent there is a lack of good data I wouldn't be so inclined to reject the Calsport numbers but I would caution that my hypothesis would be they are too high but I'm not as confident of that as that the SBR numbers are too low. I'm relieved that Calsport corrected my example and still found value with the SBR numbers because it is fact that I have been tossed and limited for buying points but I would have to strongly lean the push percentages are greater than that. Most of my point buying was the NBA though but the SBR calculator has these numbers around 4% as well and just a quick glance at Pinnacle actually does appear to me they charge a little less for buying the 6 and 7. Darn I left money on the table not buying the college games.