RAS 'teaching' the marketplace how to bet..........

This thread is getting confusing. It seems like Fez had a theory, I found data to show it's not a good theory, then I was told: "You are missing the point...the theory does not work any more" Which I thought was exactly what I was showing with the numbers...

His point was that everyone bet the over and that it will likely continue next year. In addition, the books have caught on to this and have opened totals higher, so all those games that barely beat the number are now barely losing.

Exactly [QUOTE=joelshitshow;40785]His point was that everyone bet the over and that it will likely continue next year. In addition, the books have caught on to this and have opened totals higher, so all those games that barely beat the number are now barely losing.[/QUOTE] Opening numbers and/or immediate corrections are already preadjusted to things that "used" to work. As with Dr Bob in college football, anything wildly successful AND widely touted (followed) creates a blueprint. This leads to adjustments prior to the numbers being bettable, whereas prior to this over exposure, the good numbers would linger.

I'm not sure I agree or interpret the same way what Fezzik said. I took it that Fez noticed that alot of over money came in on these games and that he thinks the reason is that these are "happy fun action games". RAS is a sharp bettor and he gave his subscribers the over play in these games. The results of this year and last year are irrelevant to what he's saying. I don't see anywhere you can conclude that the linesmaker has caught up to this (assuming the whole supposition is even true). In fact we have no idea why RAS played these games over since they don't reveal their methods or why they make certain plays. But we can assume Fezzik is clever and that his hypothesis might be true. How do you learn from this? You bet these over yourself next year since it will likely continue that these games get bet over. It doesn't matter if it wins or not. YOu'll have a solid bet. You can play under later if you don't love your bet. The original line and whether it is reflecting this trend (and it might be) is not part of the discussion IMO or whether the actual bet wins is not part of the discussion.

Fez has been on here many times since we discussed his post. If he meant something different, he would have said it. I'm nobody, but I disagree with your statement: "It doesn't matter if it wins or not. YOu'll have a solid bet." I tend to think that, while beating the closing line is helpful, I'd rather have a 58% record irrellevant of closing line than a 54% record that beats the closing number more frequently. To me, bets that win are solid, not bets that beat the closing number. But I'm nobody...

They go hand in hand. You won't have a 58% win pct if you don't beat the closing number on the majority of your bets.

[QUOTE=frankb22;40807]They go hand in hand. You won't have a 58% win pct if you don't beat the closing number on the majority of your bets.[/QUOTE] Look at RAS this year... Out of over 425 bets, they have an average CLV of +1.3 yet at 52.4% (breakeven essentially). Hell, look at their totals - out of 200 bets, CLV of +1.7, yet down about 9 units, hitting 50% on their plays. I know the mantra of getting the right side of a number... and I agree w/ that to a point, but here is what I'd like to see: In CBB this year, how often did getting on the right side of a number (aka playing steam) win vs lose? Surely someone knows... I'd be surprised if it's over 55%. Some of my favorite bets are where I'm taking a dog or a fav and the number goes the other way and my bet wins easily... I could care less what others do (and where they move the number) if my bet wins.

Say it aint so !! Rumors on another site, that Edward and BW have an arrangement this year. I'm just reporting what I've read. You in LV would know far more than me.

[QUOTE=sunnyisle69;40810]Rumors on another site, that Edward and BW have an arrangement this year. I'm just reporting what I've read. You in LV would know far more than me.[/QUOTE] WHAT???!!!! Is this why we have gotten F*CKED this year?

[QUOTE=sunnyisle69;40810]Rumors on another site, that Edward and BW have an arrangement this year. I'm just reporting what I've read. You in LV would know far more than me.[/QUOTE] Are you referring to SFW? that thread had died down a little. Or someplace else? tgunn