Recent overachiever vs. recent underachiever Article I had somewhere else that the powers that be here have given me permission to post here as well.....
5 points on college basketball, focusing on a concept that can help you ferret out some winners while (equally important) avoiding some losers.
1. The past few days have been a little frustrating in the sense that some plays that I had isolated as potential solid college hoops bets have been blown up by the results of the previous game. Oklahoma State is far superior to Oklahoma and I intended to support them in a Monday night ESPN “Big Monday” affair. But the Cowboys were off an 81-52 annihilation of Texas Tech as 7-point favorites, while OU was crushed at Baylor 91-60 as 7.5-point dogs, ending a 30-game stretch of Sooner dominance in the series. No matter how the stats and matchups look, I always try hard to not buck that situation, and was glad that I stayed off the better team last night, as OU bounced back and Okie State came back to earth offensively, shooting less than 28% in a 62-57 Sooners overtime win. I’m never eager to fade a team off a loss and 20-point non-cover of the pointspread by a supporting a team off a win and 20+ point cover.
2. A less dramatic example from the Sunday occurred when Santa Clara hung around with St. Mary’s on Sunday night, covering the double-digit pointspread in an 80-72 loss loss to a far superior opponent. St. Mary’s was satisfied with their blowout win at San Francisco a couple of nights earlier, while Santa Clara was embarrassed after a 55-46 loss to USD on Friday night extended a stretch of poor play that had seen them lose 5 of 6 at home. It was another cover by a team bouncing back from embarrassment (this time a losing streak as opposed to a humiliating blowout) vs. a road team that appeared dominant.
3. Care for one more example? It doesn’t get much more humiliating than Oregon State’s 51-point home loss (really, it was 99-48) to Seattle, a transitional Division 1 team. How could that happen to budding coaching genius Craig Robinson (”the brother of Michelle Obama!!!!!!”)? Meanwhile, underdog Oregon was whipping up on then-conference favorite Washington, in a 90-79 road upset. Despite the disparate recent results, or perhaps fueled by the disparate recent results, the satisfied Ducks had their feathers ruffled in an unexpected 64-57 loss to their apparently overmatched rivals in a game where focus and preparedness was definitely on the side of the 8-point underdog.
4. The lessons here are two-fold. First, no matter how enticing the matchup, be very careful playing the hot team vs. the cold team when the recent results have been particularly dramatic. It’s particularly important if the recent results were losses by a significant margin not only straight up, but to the pointspread as well.
5. The second lesson is that avoiding a loss can be even more valuable than picking up a win. For the bettor laying 11 to win 10 with an offshore sportsbook, a local guy, or Nevada sportsbook, avoiding a loss is $10 better per every $100 wagered than picking up a win is. While I never considered the Civil War game between Oregon/Oregon State, I avoided losses in both the St. Mary’s/Santa Clara example and the Oklahoma State/Oklahoma game by realizing that the situation didn’t jibe with my matchup analysis. On the heels of a losing Saturday, I was happy to just lay low and avoid a couple of losers on Sunday and Monday, no matter what my stats and numbers told me about those games.
