Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 02/08

No problem Truu--been there

Thurs ncaa baskets No plays on Wedn and we have 2 overnights: 562 Col Of Charleston -12.5 563 Murray St -11.5 Col of Charleston is -12 and Murray st is -12.5 at most books this morning. I wouldn't lay more then the 11.5 on Murray st. Nothing else I can see today so far. Nothing in the nhl or nba today. As always I will update my blog and twitter if anything new develops along with the overnight around 7pm pst. Good Luck today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com Twitter: Rickjsportplays

another ncaa bb pick 530 Middle tn st -4.5 Rickj

Friday ncaa baskets Thurs we went 2-1 in ncaa baskets. Murray St was an easy win as they won by 32 as a 11.5 pt favorite. Middle Tn St pulled away from a close game at the end to win by 7 as a 4.5 pt favorite but College of Charleston never came close to covering 12.5 in the 2nd half..only winning by 3. Today there are 2 games that were overnights and nothing else so far. 811 Siena -3.5 813 Fairfield +1 The line this morning is Siena -4.5 and Fairfield Pick. I would still bet both those numbers but would not lay more then the 4.5 or pick that is available now. As always I will update my blog and twitter with any new developments. And with over 100 games tomorrow should be a number of overnights which will be posted around 7pm pst. Good Luck Today RickJ rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com Twitter: rickjsportplays

going flat on Fairfield Ran the numbers after the steam this morning and am going flat on Fairfield by wagering the same amount on 814 rider +1 This doesnt happen often. Maybe 4 or 5 times all season. RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com Twitter: Rickjsportplays

an informative email I just received this email: "Hello Rick, I've been following your picks and appreciate your insight. Trying to follow your logic as to why you get off games in the morning that you previously picked the night before. For example, Thursday night your system picked Fairfield +1. Friday morning the line went to -1 and you state, "ran the numbers after the steam this morning and am going flat on Fairfield...." I would think that you're getting all the best of it. It would be funny if your pick influenced the line from your followers causing you to get off your own bet. I enjoy reading your articles. Thanks. " My response: Needless to say you are not the first that have asked me that. The best I can explain it is my analysis combines many variables that are all interrelated. When 1 variable changes often times the interrelationship changes that negates the play. This occurs infrequently and I know when it does its disconcerting and also a pain. But....nothing is easy about handicapping. My last 3 that were negated by changes in the line all would of been losers. So much better to lose the juice. Now....logically it could be argued it would better to be in a side and pay juice on a no pick play then to lay juice on both sides to get flat. And it would be hard to argue with that..but my preference is to get flat...and maybe once a year hit a middle to pay for the juice...which we did about a month ago. My analysis is not simply coming looking at a line of 4 and saying it should be 7. It looking at variables in relationship with each other and coming up hopefully a positive ev play. As far as my pick having an influence in the line....in the short run it does....but if such a small move in the number causes the analysis to throw out the play....then its probably not a very good play to begin with. These moves actually in my judgment gives me the opportunity to see how strong the play is. I dont have time to play with the numbers on each game...so the lines moves are the only way I know of to validate plays. I hope that explains it and your not more confused then I am:)...and thanks for the email. Rick

A Question For Rick [QUOTE=rickj;16934]I just received this email: "Hello Rick, I've been following your picks and appreciate your insight. Trying to follow your logic as to why you get off games in the morning that you previously picked the night before. For example, Thursday night your system picked Fairfield +1. Friday morning the line went to -1 and you state, "ran the numbers after the steam this morning and am going flat on Fairfield...." I would think that you're getting all the best of it. It would be funny if your pick influenced the line from your followers causing you to get off your own bet. I enjoy reading your articles. Thanks. " My response: Needless to say you are not the first that have asked me that. The best I can explain it is my analysis combines many variables that are all interrelated. When 1 variable changes often times the interrelationship changes that negates the play. This occurs infrequently and I know when it does its disconcerting and also a pain. But....nothing is easy about handicapping. My last 3 that were negated by changes in the line all would of been losers. So much better to lose the juice. Now....logically it could be argued it would better to be in a side and pay juice on a no pick play then to lay juice on both sides to get flat. And it would be hard to argue with that..but my preference is to get flat...and maybe once a year hit a middle to pay for the juice...which we did about a month ago. My analysis is not simply coming looking at a line of 4 and saying it should be 7. It looking at variables in relationship with each other and coming up hopefully a positive ev play. As far as my pick having an influence in the line....in the short run it does....but if such a small move in the number causes the analysis to throw out the play....then its probably not a very good play to begin with. These moves actually in my judgment gives me the opportunity to see how strong the play is. I dont have time to play with the numbers on each game...so the lines moves are the only way I know of to validate plays. I hope that explains it and your not more confused then I am:)...and thanks for the email. Rick[/QUOTE] Rick, I don't understand this statement, "logically it could be argued it would better to be in a side and pay juice on a no pick play then to lay juice on both sides to get flat." Assuming -110 in juice, aren't you going to lose the same amount of juice either way? Please forgive me if this is a dumb question but just trying to learn. Thanks!

Lets see...if you bet 110 to win 100 your giving up 5% juice on 100.00 or 5.00 but if you wager 110 to win 100 on each side your giving up 5% juice on 200.00 and your expected loss is 10.00. So Its costing you double to wager on each side....less of course the probability of hitting some type of middle. That would be how I would look at it. Rick

Sat ncaa baskets We lost with siena on Friday. They really never had a chance getting blown out by Niagara in the 2nd Half and losing by double digits. Today there are 3 games all posted overnight: 503 Delaware +13.5 563 Nebraska +15 581 Virg comm -10.5 Delaware is +12.5, Nebraska +14 and Virg Comm -11 this morning. The only one I would still take this morning is VC -11 , Nebraska would have to be +14.5 or better...and Delaware +13.5 or better. As Always I will post any updates on my blog and twitter if anything develops along with the overnights around 7pm pst. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com Twitter: Rickjsportplays

Learned Something [QUOTE=rickj;16953]Lets see...if you bet 110 to win 100 your giving up 5% juice on 100.00 or 5.00 but if you wager 110 to win 100 on each side your giving up 5% juice on 200.00 and your expected loss is 10.00. So Its costing you double to wager on each side....less of course the probability of hitting some type of middle. That would be how I would look at it. Rick[/QUOTE] My problem was I didn't know a book would let you pay 5% (assuming -110) juice to have a "no bet". I've always just bet back the other side and wound up winning $100 on one bet and losing $110 on the other for a net $10 loss. Next time I want to cancel a bet, I need to inquire with my book if I can do that without having to bet both sides. Thanks!