SacTown Tonight [B]Kings+2 (-113)
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In one of the best spots you will ever see in NBA situational handicapping the Sacramento Kings host the Portland Trailblazers tonight.
The same 2 teams squared off 3 nights ago in Portland in a game where the game was tied with a little over 8 minutes left and saw Sacramento go scoreless for the next 6 minutes and still only lose by 7. In that game the Kings late game strategy was to force feed the ball into newly acquired Carl Landry in an attempt to get him to the foul line where he is exceptional in the 4Q this season.
It didn't work as the crowd enthusiasm lifted the Blazers defensive efforts using double teams with Camby and Batum to blanket Landry and the Kings offensive efficiency turned very sour quickly.
Expect a different set of circumstances tonight in this quick turnaround rematch this time on the King's homecourt.
The Kings have won 3 of their last 4 home games and I am just in love with the future of this team. I think they absolutely raped the Rockets acquiring Landry for an over the hill, injury prone, and undersized 2 guard (Kevin Martin) in your classic trade small for big scenario. The length and size of these Kings with Landry/Thompson/May/Hawes/Nocioni is very tough to play against on their home court.
Also Tyreke Evans is still the slight frontrunner for the rookie of the year race recording his first career triple double in their last game a victory over the Toronto Raptors.
But enough about the Kings. Take a look at the spot Portland is in here. First of all they are playing in a revenge spot here on the road to a team they just slipped by...as I have already mentioned.
Now couple that with the fact that they just played a nationally televised game last night against the pesky Warriors (A place they hadn't won in 5 years) and alas Portland trailed for 95% of the game. In the end Portland played their hearts out, left everything they had on the floor, and shut the Warriors down late to pull out the victory snapping the long skid in Oakland. All Portland starters with the exception of Batum played over 30 minutes last night with Roy playing 42 exhausting minutes. If you watched the very few moments following the gutty defensive effort and victory you would have seen Nate McMillan and his staff celebrate with his players as if they had just won a playoff series after beating the 17 win Warriors. It was that important to them to make that comeback and break that losing streak there.
Now 23 hours later (Game last night started officially an hour earlier than tonight's game is scheduled to start) and with some slight travel Portland is slated to play another road venue against another pesky team albeit this time one with much more depth, size, rest, and just as rowdy of home crowd....and this time with revenge on their mind.
Camby/Miller/Howard all mid 30's or older playing in a brutal spot here.
Don't take lightly the fact that 30+ minutes of NBA play in a game where you trail large and make a concentrated defensive effort to make the large climb back to get a lead and hold on to win are HARD minutes mentally and physically. Portland is spent.
It is the NBA boys....so anything can happen. But I'm telling you this is about as good as it gets as far as +EV in NBA wagering.
Good luck and go Kings.
