Something higher than expectations

Something higher than expectations In my earlier thread I said I didn't feel anything had been outperforming expectations and really was below but of course the obvious is: Is that Fezzik actually up 20 units in the NBA playoffs? I know it a select sample size, shorter time frame but I had RAS negative for an entire season and I think Dr. Bob is doing fine but only up 30 units or so for the entire year. And I have seen others do way worse. And I don't even know what the off numbers are. I don't think that great. He gives you +4.5 and you can bet +5. This Fez guy is a dream come true.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;43553]In my earlier thread I said I didn't feel anything had been outperforming expectations and really was below but of course the obvious is: Is that Fezzik actually up 20 units in the NBA playoffs? I know it a select sample size, shorter time frame but I had RAS negative for an entire season and I think Dr. Bob is doing fine but only up 30 units or so for the entire year. And I have seen others do way worse. And I don't even know what the off numbers are. I don't think that great. He gives you +4.5 and you can bet +5. This Fez guy is a dream come true.[/QUOTE] I think a "Fez thanks for the hot streak...keep it up!" would suffice! ;) "This Fez guy is a dream come true."??? I evaluate my cappers over the long haul, not the short one, wish them well when they do well and criticize if needed. Fez's hotness has come in fits and starts: NCAA tourney started stone cold, then white hot, overall 18-13 +5.5 units... NBA playoffs started cold again, 11-15 thru late april, lost "4 weight Fezzik Freight Train Of Cash GOY", then white hot, and now 20 games over .500 for the playoffs Cool/mediocre during CBB/NBA reg season. FB? NFL, CFB, lost money in FB during the reg season + playoffs. Remember this? [QUOTE=ComptrBob;39209]Final Record: Overall sides/totals unweighted W/L: 159-147-6, 52.0% Overall weighted W/L: 276-248.5-9, 52.5%, -2.94u [/QUOTE] I guess i don't need to state the obvious but I get :mad: when someone goes off like this on a tout after a few awesome weeks. Fez.... nice job of late.... keep it up!! (thats what she said) - I can definitely use it after the bad RAS season like skeet said. seems like Fez has been [U]very[/U] good end of tournaments (CBB/NBA) and w/ RSW plays. During seasons and beginning of tournaments, not nearly as good....... Something I note and will use going forward.

I tried to cover my comments by recognizing the limited time frame and I was being a little overboard. But the playoff record is solid both compared to my personal expectations and on its own vs. any other capper, off number or betting strategy one may be employing in this year's playoffs is my opinion. The exact order of his wins or losses and timing is not that relevant unless one happened to bankrupt themselves in that stretch. And I am making no attempt to comment on any other record he's posted on this site for other sports or any other forums he may have selected on in the past. If he did lousy, he did lousy. The freight train of cash game on the over is a turnover that cost us 4.4points in a game we're now winning by 20. And they don't have alot of time to get their 20 back especially if Fez sits on the ball and burns the shot clock out. He said it would be a good party for the NBA playoffs and I'm glad I showed up. But I'm with you in hoping obviously for better results in football. The dream come true comment is more from executing betting transactions not even Fez's record. Wouldn't RAS be alot easier to bet if I could wait a day before betting their selections, get a half point better than their release number and win? Well, you can't do that. On many of the Fez selections he's giving on this NBA playoff run there may have been a few you could miss and not get the number but not too many. And even a half ass effective betting strategy and you should be up more than the units he has on his already postive record through reduced juice or even superior numbers. This is the totally opposite problem of RAS which many people complain about including Fez himself where it is difficult to even do as well as their scored record since the chances of missing numbers is so much higher.

The huge liquidity of the NBA /NCAA playoff market is a nice thing ALOT easier for hundreds of guys to get down on the bets, when there is always at least some opposition......

Huge markets for sure make a big difference. Most people dismiss the notion that someone could have a sizeable edge in something like the NBA playoffs. That said, if Fezzik were to maintain his recent win rate over a larger sample size, demand for his numbers will increase, and supply wll go down. It's kind of a catch 22.

exactly... then with sheep in full tow, variance occurs, sheep slaughtered from improper bet sizing...feeling impaled the babies cry, we have drama, rinse, repeat. This is why the emphasis shouldn't be on picks/ records. [QUOTE=RightAngle;43609]Huge markets for sure make a big difference. Most people dismiss the notion that someone could have a sizeable edge in something like the NBA playoffs. That said, if Fezzik were to maintain his recent win rate over a larger sample size, demand for his numbers will increase, and supply wll go down. It's kind of a catch 22.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=hardrock;43622]This is why the emphasis shouldn't be on picks/ records.[/QUOTE] But yet it is... what do you think the fearless leader uses on twitter to draw potential customers into LVA? I'll give you a hint, it's not his good looks... hint #2... his 2nd to last tweet: "@AndyFezzik 59-36 weighted in NBA playoffs, and started 8-14, 51-22 run!!"

Can you blame him though? Thats why it IS about records. It's why he doesn't tweet his FB record from last year but WILL tweet his BB record from this year... And its why for NFL 11 and NBA 11 u can bet he won't tweet his FB record frm last yr to promote it but will tweet his NBA record (at least playoffs for sure) to promote it.