Ten Sample NBA Trends

for the sake of general scientific study, following the parameters in those trends arent going to lead to future successes. one can data mine through a vast database and reverse engineer 52-0 ats trends based on meaningless parameters. if the underlying parameters of the trend are somehow relevant and possibly uncompensated for by the current betting market, you may be able to argue a minute advantage.

[QUOTE=sundown;31062]for the sake of general scientific study, following the parameters in those trends arent going to lead to future successes.[/QUOTE] I don't understand how you can make a statement like this and use the word "scientific." You can say, "I think that those trends aren't going to lead to future success." You can say, "In my opinion those trends aren't going to lead to future success." You can say, "Those trends probably won't lead to future success." But making the blanket authoritative statement, "for the sake of general scientific study, following the parameters in those trends aren't going to lead to future successes," is not a scientific statement. There is no way you can know this. I have used player-based trends for many seasons now and I can state first-hand that they work. Number one, they are not factored into the line. Number two, in some cases, they make good handicapping sense. In some cases, they don't. When they don't, we don't use them. Simple as that. The main reason why I'm posting them to to demonstrate that there is an on-line database available that is 100% free at which anyone with internet access can perform their own inquiries. Prof M.

my point is the data/info and ats results that make up the listed trends are obsolete. not trying to be an ass, just stating my opinion. i could be wrong.

My key point is that these "88% trends guy" hit 50-54% ATS lifetime on their picks WOULD LOVE to see someone prove me wrong! !!! caveat, does not apply to season wins, where 60% IS obtainable. .....as for making a living at this, well, it really doesn't take much talent to make a good wage betting sports, even in 2010. Still a donk fest out there amazingly with the sports books.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;31087]WOULD LOVE to see someone prove me wrong! !!! caveat, does not apply to season wins, where 60% IS obtainable. .....as for making a living at this, well, it really doesn't take much talent to make a good wage betting sports, even in 2010. Still a donk fest out there amazingly with the sports books.[/QUOTE] I think that you're being generous when you say "88% Trend Guys" hit between 50% and 54%. I would guess 50%. In fact, these "trend guys" that are all computer skills with no handicapping skills have given "trends" a bad name. So many in this blog routinely dismiss all trends as useless. I don't blame them. All that most trends do is describe the past; they don't forecast future results. However, I would propose that there are trends in past performance that can be used to forecast the results. An intelligent handicapper can separate the gold from the garbage. I would call myself a handicapper that utilizes trends in past performance, not a trend handicapper. We've been doing this for a long time. I remember a trend involving the Lakers when they were off a game in which Shaquille O'Neal outscored Kobe Bryant. So, I think we all are more on the same page than it may appear at first glance. We all have a common goal of beating the sportsbooks. We all agree that blindly playing trends doesn't work. I would suggest that I may have something new to contribute. I'm not asking for blind faith. I know I'm expected to prove myself -- and I wouldn't have it any other way. It's going to be an interesting season. I'm looking forward to the challenge. Prof M. P.S. When I have a system that is 100%, say 25-0 ATS over the past 10 seasons, I'm hoping that it's 57% to win.

You make a good point. The key is to find and use trends that are meaningful and relevant - like winless double digit dogs coming off a bye week.

I LOVE The league wide team trends.......... As an example, how does a double digit fav do the next game off a SU loss? HAve to figure we would get their A game.......

Double-digit Fav off SU loss [QUOTE=Fezzik;31216]As an example, how does a double digit fav do the next game off a SU loss? HAve to figure we would get their A game.......[/QUOTE] The SDQL text is simply: [B]line

I would agree with a lot of the stuff you just mentioned as far as off days, home/road etc but forgive the naive question but what does leading at half have to do with anything?

[QUOTE=bkeiller;31233]I would agree with a lot of the stuff you just mentioned as far as off days, home/road etc but forgive the naive question but what does leading at half have to do with anything?[/QUOTE] Good question. Here's my theory -- and I would be eager to read others. I would venture that when a team loses a game in which they were winning at the half, they would respond differently that if they trailed throughout. Many times, a team relaxes somewhat with a comfortable lead at the half and play conservatively in the second half -- some would call it playing "not to lose." In the NBA, it would be passing up good shots early in the shot clock and in the NFL it would be running the ball on first and second down. When this strategy produces a loss, often a heavy favorite is more likely to cover their next game because they keep up the offensive pressure even with a lead. This can prevent the back-door cover and it can also lead to the OVER. Prof M.